2026 World Cup Draw Simulation Projects Tough Path for Host Nations

The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage draw is just around the corner. A new simulation has projected a challenging opening round for the tournament’s three host nations. The United States, Mexico, and Canada could all face difficult opponents based on this mock draw.

According to a simulation by Sports Illustrated, the draws are not favorable for the hosts. The official event takes place this December, setting the stage for the expanded 48-team tournament in North America.

Analyzing the Potential Group of Death Scenarios

The simulation placed the USMNT in Group D. Their opponents would be Croatia, Tunisia, and New Zealand. A match against Croatia, a recent finalist and third-place finisher, would be an immediate test.

It would pit Christian Pulisic against his AC Milan teammate Luka Modrić. Results against Tunisia and New Zealand would likely decide if the U.S. advances.

Mexico’s simulated draw appears even more daunting. El Tri was placed with Colombia, Scotland, and first-time qualifier Jordan. Colombia, led by Luis Díaz, is a top South American side.

Scotland brings Premier League experience. Mexico’s path to the knockout stage would be fiercely contested from the first whistle.

Canada’s potential group includes Morocco and Saudi Arabia. A playoff winner from a pool containing Italy would also join. This setup makes Canada’s advancement an uphill battle.

Star-Studded Groups and Title Contenders Emerge

Other simulated groups create instant drama. Reigning champion Argentina got a seemingly favorable draw with Australia, South Africa, and Haiti. This could set Lionel Messi up for a deep run.

Meanwhile, a potential “group of death” was formed. Brazil, Senegal, and Norway were drawn together, with a playoff team like Ukraine or Poland to join.

This group would feature stars like Vinícius Júnior, Sadio Mané, and Erling Haaland. Every match would be a must-watch spectacle with high stakes.

European powers like Spain, France, and England also received manageable simulations. France, with Kylian Mbappé, seeks a second title in eight years. Spain, the Euro 2024 winner, is considered a top favorite.

This 2026 World Cup draw simulation highlights the fine margins in tournament football. The host nations will hope for better luck when the real ceremony unfolds in December.

Thought you’d like to know

Q1: When is the real 2026 World Cup draw?

The official FIFA draw ceremony is scheduled for December 2024. It will be held in a to-be-announced North American city. This will finalize the groups for the tournament.

Q2: How many teams are in the 2026 World Cup?

The 2026 tournament is expanding to 48 national teams. This is a significant increase from the 32 teams in previous editions. It means more matches and a new group stage format.

Q3: Which teams are favorites to win in 2026?

Current favorites include reigning champion Argentina, Euro 2024 winner Spain, and France. Teams like England and Brazil are also expected to be strong contenders. Form over the next two years will shape these predictions.

Q4: Where will the 2026 World Cup be played?

Matches will be hosted across 16 cities in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The final is scheduled for July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. It is the first World Cup hosted by three nations.

Q5: What is a “group of death” in the World Cup?

It is an informal term for a first-round group with multiple top-tier teams. This makes advancement for even strong sides very difficult. The simulation suggested Groups G and L could earn this label.