Bengals vs. Broncos Predictions: MNF Odds, Expert Picks, and JK Dobbins First TD Prop

The Cincinnati Bengals visit the Denver Broncos for Monday Night Football on September 29, 2025. Fans are watching the spread, moneyline, and player props closely. One of the most talked-about bets is FanDuel’s JK Dobbins first touchdown scorer prop at +450 odds.

This Week 4 matchup is crucial for both AFC teams. Denver wants to keep its home-field advantage strong, while Cincinnati looks to upset a heavy favorite in primetime. Sportsbooks have Denver as a clear favorite, but analytics hint the game may be closer than expected.

Bengals vs. Broncos Predictions and Betting Odds

According to Dimers’ predictive model, the Broncos have a 74% chance to win at Empower Field at Mile High. Cincinnati has a 56% chance to cover the +7.5 spread. The total points line is set at 44.5, with an even 50-50 split on whether the game goes over or under.

The current betting lines at publication time show Denver at -7.5 (-110) and the Bengals at +7.5 (-108). The Broncos’ moneyline sits at -450, while the Bengals offer value at +360. Dimers’ simulation sees a 3.9% edge in taking Cincinnati straight up.

Score projection after 10,000 simulations: Broncos 25, Bengals 18. Denver’s balanced offense and strong run game should give them control, but Cincinnati could stay close enough to cover the spread.

FanDuel First TD Scorer Prop: JK Dobbins leads all Denver players with a 13.9% chance to score first. He’s the lead back and a frequent red-zone option. FanDuel lists him at +450 to hit pay dirt first — the most favorable projection for any Bronco.

Other notable first touchdown odds based on predictive data: Courtland Sutton (8.4%), Troy Franklin (5.7%) for Denver; Chase Brown (10.1%), Ja’Marr Chase (7.9%), Tee Higgins (6.1%) for Cincinnati.

Game Impact and Player Watch

JK Dobbins remains Denver’s offensive focal point near the goal line. Cincinnati’s run defense has struggled, which makes this prop appealing for bettors. Bo Nix is projected to throw for about 228 yards, while Dobbins could rush for 68 yards and one score.

For the Bengals, quarterback Jake Browning is expected to pass for 227 yards. Ja’Marr Chase projects for 70 receiving yards, while Chase Brown could lead the ground attack with 55 rushing yards.

This game also matters for the AFC playoff picture early in the season. A Broncos win would keep them among the conference leaders, while a Bengals upset could shake up the Wild Card race.

Bottom line: Denver is favored, but Cincinnati offers betting value on the moneyline and the spread. For prop bettors, JK Dobbins first touchdown at +450 looks like one of the night’s best options.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: What are the Bengals vs. Broncos predictions for MNF?

Most models favor Denver to win at home, but Cincinnati has a good chance to cover the +7.5 spread.

Q2: What is the JK Dobbins first touchdown prop?

FanDuel offers +450 odds on JK Dobbins to score the first touchdown. Data gives him a 13.9% chance to do so.

Q3: What is the projected Bengals vs. Broncos score?

Dimers projects Broncos 25, Bengals 18 after 10,000 simulations.

Q4: Which team has better betting value?

The Bengals moneyline at +360 shows the best value compared to projected win probabilities.

Q5: What is the over/under line for this game?

The total is set at 44.5 points, with models split on over or under.