Bills vs. Texans Predictions: Can Houston Slow Josh Allen in Week 12?

The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans meet on Thursday Night Football in a pivotal Week 12 matchup at NRG Stadium. The Bills enter at 7-3 and aim to extend their playoff push, while the Texans sit at 5-5 and face another test without quarterback C.J. Stroud, who remains in the concussion protocol. Our Bills vs. Texans predictions break down the latest injuries, matchup dynamics, and what each team must do to win.

Buffalo is coming off a dominant win over Tampa Bay where Josh Allen accounted for six total touchdowns. Houston, meanwhile, relies on backup quarterback Davis Mills once again in a must-win setting to stay competitive in the AFC playoff race. This primetime meeting features one of the NFL’s hottest offenses taking on one of the league’s top defenses.

How the matchup shapes Bills vs. Texans predictions

Josh Allen enters Week 12 in elite form. He scored three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns last week and continues to be the Bills’ most dangerous weapon. He now faces a Texans defense ranked among the NFL’s best in yards allowed and points allowed. Houston has consistently limited explosive plays and forced opponents into long, difficult drives.

Buffalo will be without several key offensive players. Tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) is out, and receivers Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck) and Mecole Hardman (calf) will also miss the game. These absences place more pressure on Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer, and running back James Cook to pick up the missing production.

Houston’s offense also remains depleted. With C.J. Stroud still out, Davis Mills steps in again, supported by a running game led by rookie Woody Marks and veteran Nick Chubb. The Texans have been forced into a pass-heavy approach in recent weeks. Mills has targeted Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and Jayden Higgins on the majority of attempts, forming a highly concentrated passing attack.

The Bills defense has been strong against the pass but vulnerable against the run. Buffalo ranks near the bottom in yards per carry allowed and has surrendered multiple rushing touchdowns over the last several weeks. That gives Houston a clear path: slow the game, sustain drives, and rely on Marks and Chubb to exploit Buffalo’s run defense.

Game script and strategic outlook

Buffalo will try to control tempo early. Expect designed quarterback runs, quick passing concepts, and occasional deep shots to keep Houston’s defense off balance. If the Bills establish James Cook early, Allen’s play-action and scrambling ability could create critical third-down conversions.

For Houston, the formula is simple but demanding. Mills must avoid turnovers, feed Collins and Schultz in high-percentage situations, and let the run game dictate pace. Houston’s defense will attempt to limit explosive plays, force Buffalo into red-zone field goals, and rely on home-field energy to stay competitive deep into the game.

This matchup likely stays tight. Buffalo owns the edge in quarterback play, but Houston owns the defensive advantage. Prime-time games featuring elite defenses often trend lower scoring, and Houston’s ability to dictate tempo will determine how long they remain within striking distance.

The most balanced Bills vs. Texans predictions lean toward a narrow Buffalo win. A projected outcome of 23–20 Bills reflects both Josh Allen’s ceiling and Houston’s defensive strength.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: What time does the Bills vs. Texans game start?

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 20 at NRG Stadium in Houston. The game airs on Prime Video and on local affiliates in team markets.

Q2: Why isn’t C.J. Stroud playing?

C.J. Stroud remains in the concussion protocol and has been ruled out again. Davis Mills will start at quarterback for a third straight week.

Q3: What role will Woody Marks have for Houston?

Rookie running back Woody Marks has taken over primary duties with Joe Mixon sidelined. He is expected to receive a heavy workload against a Bills defense that has struggled against the run.

Q4: How will Dalton Kincaid’s injury affect the Bills offense?

With Kincaid out, Dawson Knox becomes the top tight end, and Buffalo must lean more on its wide receivers and running backs in the passing game.

Q5: What’s the key stat that could decide this matchup?

Houston’s top-ranked defense against Josh Allen’s recent scoring surge. The winner of that duel will likely control the game.