China’s arms exports failing at rapid pace

INTERNATIONAL DESK: China’s global market share of arms exports is falling drastically as its overseas arms transfers fell 23 per cent over the past half-decade. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its annual report on the global arms trade published recently, observed that between 2018–2022, Chinese arms transfers averaged barely $1.4 billion, significantly down from $2 billion worth of arms exports in 2013, Xi Jinping’s first year as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party.

Countries like the United States, France, and Italy have seen their shares of the global arms market rise considerably. South Korea is becoming a significant player in the international arms bazaar, outselling Israel, Turkey, and Sweden. At the same time, Russian arms exports dropped a whopping 31 per cent – nearly one-third.

However, Chinese arms sales are unlikely to benefit from Russia’s setbacks. Russia’s biggest buyers – particularly India and Vietnam – will never buy Chinese weaponry. Most Southeast Asian states, except Myanmar and Thailand, will unlikely turn to Beijing for armaments.

China has consistently failed over the past several decades to break out of its second-tier status as an arms exporter. Beijing’s share of the global arms business has rarely topped 5 per cent or 6 per cent, leaving it a distant third behind the United States and Russia or, more recently, fourth behind France. Moreover, China is still overly dependent on a few major arms purchasers, especially Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Pakistan has accounted for over half – 54 per cent in recent years of all Chinese arms transfers. At the same time, one-time customers like Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Sudan, and Venezuela have either significantly curtailed or completely stopped their buying of Chinese weaponry.

Experts say that China’s global market share of arms exports is falling as its weapons remain largely untested in combat and come with hidden costs, including political ones. Chinese arms are often cheaper than comparable products from other exporters, but after-sale service support can be costly. The analysts say poor countries and those at odds politically with the United States typically buy from China, giving it a steady clientele over the past two decades. Buyers are concentrated in Africa, the Middle East, southern Asia and Latin America. Countries that buy Chinese weapons complain, experts say; many never use the equipment because they are not tested at war. There are signs of stress that occasionally appear after a sale.

A few years ago, it was reported that the Royal Jordanian Air Force had put six Chinese-made CH-4B Pterosaur drones up for resale. Statements before the resale “indicate the Jordanians may be disappointed with its performance,” the Overt Defense website said. In Thailand, the navy accepted three Chinese-made tanks in 2021 for $11.77 million despite opposition lawmakers asking why they took priority over COVID-19 vaccines.

However, China still has some significant strengths in the global arms business. For example, Beijing has emerged as a leading exporter of all kinds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) ranging from very small types all the way up to very large high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) UAVs. In particular, China has rapidly become one of the world’s largest suppliers of armed drones. According to SIPRI, Beijing has sold armed drones to at least 16 countries on three continents – Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Altogether, these sales have been worth more than $700 million.

Nevertheless, the next few years promise to be lean for Russia’s and China’s arms exporters. Moreover, China still depends on Russia for jet engines and helicopters. In 2015, Beijing signed a $2 billion deal with Moscow for 24 Su-35 air-superiority fighter jets.(IPCSC)