The College Football Playoff race is entering its final, decisive phase. After a chaotic Week 12, the field of legitimate national title contenders has narrowed significantly. Several powerhouse programs have been mathematically eliminated from the new 12-team format. Meanwhile, a handful of teams have already secured their postseason berths.
According to analysis from Sports Illustrated, the playoff landscape is crystallizing. The action on the field has started to separate the true contenders from the pack. This sets the stage for a dramatic conclusion to the regular season.
Five Teams Already Secure Their Playoff Spot
Five teams are now considered locks for the College Football Playoff. These teams have built such strong resumes that even a loss in their final games would not keep them out. The group includes expected powerhouses and a major surprise.
Ohio State and Georgia are among the teams that have secured their place. Indiana, despite not being a preseason favorite, has also played its way into a locked position. Their performances have made them immune to the chaos of the final weeks.
Chaotic Races and Surprising Eliminations Reshape the Field
The path to the playoff remains wide open for 26 other teams. Key conference battles will determine who joins the locked-in programs. The American Athletic Conference, in particular, features a thrilling multi-team race for the Group of 5’s automatic bid.
However, the door has closed for others. Per the analysis, 110 teams—a full 81% of the FBS—are now out of the playoff chase. This includes high-profile programs like the Texas Longhorns, whose preseason No. 1 ranking proved to be overhyped. Their elimination marks a significant disappointment.
Notre Dame remains in a strong position but is not yet a lock. Their fate could depend on how the committee views their resume compared to other 10-win teams from power conferences. The final rankings will ultimately decide their fate.
The expanded College Football Playoff is delivering the drama it promised. The final weeks of the season will determine which teams complete the 12-team field and continue their chase for a national championship.
Dropping this nugget your way
Which teams are already locks for the College Football Playoff?
Five teams have secured their playoff berths. This group includes Ohio State, Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi, and Indiana. Their records and resumes are strong enough to survive a potential final-week loss.
Is the Texas Longhorns’ season over?
Yes, Texas has been eliminated from College Football Playoff contention. The preseason No. 1 team will not reach the playoff after failing to live up to expectations. Their focus now shifts to a bowl game and the 2025 season.
How does the Group of 5 playoff spot look?
The race for the Group of 5’s automatic bid is wide open. The American Athletic Conference has a chaotic multi-team battle. Teams like Navy, Tulane, and James Madison are all in the running for that single coveted spot.
Can Notre Dame still make the playoff?
Notre Dame is in a strong position but is not yet a lock. The Fighting Irish need to win their final games and hope their resume stacks up favorably against other 10-2 teams from power conferences on Selection Sunday.
Why was the ACC’s playoff hopes hurt?
The ACC’s hopes for getting multiple teams into the playoff took a hit. Key teams like Louisville suffered damaging losses that eliminated them from contention. This likely limits the conference to just its champion receiving a bid.
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