College Football Playoff Picture Shifts as BYU Hosts UCF in High-Stakes Big 12 Finale

The No. 11 BYU Cougars host the UCF Knights tonight in a critical Big 12 regular season finale. The game kicks off at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah. For UCF, it is a must-win to secure bowl eligibility.

For BYU, the stakes involve College Football Playoff seeding. The Cougars have already clinched their spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. This matchup will directly impact the national postseason landscape.

BYU’s Path to the Playoff Runs Through Dominant Defense

BYU enters the game with a stellar 10-1 record. According to ESPN analytics, they hold a 93.6% win probability tonight. Their defense is a key reason for this dominance.

The unit ranks 11th nationally in the FBS. They allow opponents to convert just 31.0% of third-down attempts. This creates immense pressure on struggling offenses.

UCF’s offense has ranked in the bottom half of the Big 12 this season. The Knights also carry a troubling -2 turnover margin. Protecting the football will be their utmost priority against BYU’s relentless defense.

UCF’s Bowl Hopes Hinge on Road Upset

The UCF Knights face a daunting challenge. They must win to finish the regular season 6-6 and become bowl-eligible. Their journey has been difficult, with only two conference victories.

A major hurdle is their performance away from home. UCF holds an 0-4 record on the road this season. Provo presents one of the toughest environments they will face.

Experts project a lopsided contest. CFB Graphs gives BYU an 82.2% chance to win with a projected score of 31-10. UCF will need a flawless, mistake-free game to defy these odds.

Info at your fingertips

What did BYU clinch before this game?

BYU clinched its berth in the Big 12 Championship Game on Friday. This happened when Arizona State lost to Arizona, eliminating the Sun Devils from contention. The Cougars will face Texas Tech for the conference title.

What is UCF’s record and what do they need?

UCF currently has a 5-6 overall record. They must win this game to achieve a 6-6 record and secure bowl eligibility for the postseason. A loss would end their season.

What are BYU’s playoff chances?

According to PFSN College FPM calculations, BYU has a 65.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff. They also have a 39.7% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship. A strong win tonight could improve their seeding.

Who is favored to win and by how much?

BYU is a heavy favorite, favored by 18.5 points according to major sportsbooks. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them a 93.6% probability of winning the game outright.

Is any key BYU player injured?

Wide receiver Chase Roberts is listed as a game-time decision for BYU. He carries an injury designation heading into the matchup. The team’s depth is expected to compensate if he cannot play.

Where can I find the latest rankings?

The latest College Football Playoff rankings are published by the selection committee. BYU sits at No. 11 in the most recent list. These rankings determine playoff participation and bowl placements.