The Dallas Cowboys’ postseason hopes took a slight step back this week. Their playoff probability dipped following the San Francisco 49ers’ Monday Night Football win. This shift occurred despite the Cowboys not playing a game.

The change highlights the tight race in the NFC playoff picture. According to NFL.com’s analytics, Dallas now faces a steeper climb to secure a wild-card spot.
Navigating a Crowded NFC Wild Card Race
The Cowboys currently hold the tenth position in the NFC standings. They sit with a 5-5-1 record after a crucial win over Philadelphia. Their playoff odds now stand at approximately 8%.
This puts them behind several teams, including the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers’ victory over Carolina solidified their hold on the seventh seed. Dallas must now outperform multiple competitors in the final weeks.
Their path is complicated by a prior loss to the Carolina Panthers. That head-to-head result serves as a key tiebreaker disadvantage. Every game outcome across the conference now directly impacts their shrinking margin for error.
The Uphill Battle for a Postseason Berth
The schedule offers both challenge and opportunity for Dallas. An upcoming matchup against the Detroit Lions looms large in Week 14. That game could serve as a direct elimination contest for a wild-card berth.
First, the team must host the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving. A win would provide a massive boost to their credibility and odds. A loss would make their path dramatically more difficult.
Analysts note the Cowboys cannot control other teams’ results. Their focus must remain on winning their remaining games. The final stretch will test the team’s resilience and consistency under pressure.
The Dallas Cowboys playoff odds remain a long shot, but they are still alive. Their fate will be decided on the field in a demanding holiday schedule.
A quick knowledge drop for you
What are the Cowboys’ current playoff odds?
After the 49ers’ Week 12 win, the Cowboys’ playoff probability is estimated around 8%. This reflects their position as the tenth seed in a highly competitive NFC conference.
Which team is directly ahead of the Cowboys for a wild card?
The San Francisco 49ers currently hold the seventh and final playoff spot. The Cowboys trail them and several other teams, needing to make up significant ground in the standings.
Why do the Panthers rank above Dallas with the same record?
Carolina owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas. The Panthers defeated the Cowboys 30-27 in Week 6, which gives them the advantage if both teams finish with identical records.
What is the most important game left for the Cowboys?
The Week 14 game against the Detroit Lions is critical. It represents a potential direct showdown for playoff positioning and could function as a must-win elimination game for both teams.
Can the Cowboys still win the NFC East?
Mathematically, yes, but it is unlikely. They trail the Philadelphia Eagles by multiple games and would need a major collapse from Philadelphia alongside a nearly perfect finish from Dallas.
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