The Dallas Cowboys’ playoff hopes took a small step back this week. Their probability of making the postseason fell after the San Francisco 49ers’ victory on Monday Night Football. This shift occurred despite the Cowboys improving their own record just days prior.

According to NFL.com’s statistical model, the team’s playoff odds now sit at roughly 8%. This is a minor decrease from the 10% figure calculated after Dallas’s dramatic Week 12 win. The change reflects the tight and competitive race for the final NFC wild card spots.
A Cluttered NFC Playoff Picture Emerges
The Cowboys currently hold the 10th position in the NFC standings. Their record of 5-5-1 places them just behind the Carolina Panthers. Dallas loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Carolina due to a Week 6 loss.
Several teams are jockeying for position ahead of them. The San Francisco 49ers now occupy the seventh and final playoff slot. Green Bay and Seattle also hold strong positions in the wild card chase. Every game outcome now carries significant weight for Dallas’s fading chances.
The schedule offers no favors. Dallas faces the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day. A win against the AFC powerhouse would provide a crucial boost. A loss would make their path to the playoffs exponentially more difficult.
The Uphill Battle for a Postseason Berth
Analysts note that Dallas does not control its own destiny. Their fate is partially tied to the performance of teams ahead of them. The 49ers, in particular, have a favorable schedule in the coming weeks.
The Cowboys must win most, if not all, of their remaining games. This includes tough matchups beyond Thanksgiving. The team’s resilience will be tested repeatedly during the final stretch of the season.
Fans are clinging to hope after the team’s recent comeback victory. However, the margin for error has effectively vanished. Each week brings new pressure and a must-win mentality to the locker room.
The Dallas Cowboys playoff odds remain slim but alive. Their historic win over Philadelphia kept hope flickering. The team’s postseason destiny will be decided in these final demanding weeks.
A quick knowledge drop for you
Q1: What are the Cowboys’ current playoff odds?
After the 49ers’ Week 12 win, the Cowboys’ playoff probability is approximately 8%. This is a slight decrease from the 10% odds they held prior to Monday night’s game.
Q2: Why did their odds go down after they won?
Playoff odds are relative. While Dallas won, so did key competitors like San Francisco. The 49ers securing another victory strengthened their hold on a wild card spot, making Dallas’s path harder.
Q3: Who is ahead of the Cowboys for a wild card spot?
Currently, the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and San Francisco 49ers hold the wild card positions. The Cowboys also trail the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers in the overall NFC standings.
Q4: What record do the Cowboys likely need to make the playoffs?
Most projections suggest Dallas needs to finish at least 9-7-1 or 10-6-1. This means winning four or five of their final six games, a challenging task given their upcoming schedule.
Q5: Do the Cowboys play any other wild card contenders?
Yes. Their most critical game may be in Week 14 against the Detroit Lions, who are directly ahead of them in the standings. Winning that head-to-head matchup is crucial.
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