Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office

1.Zootopia 2

Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2 Weekend Range: $50M – $70M

Pros

• Disney delivered Zootopia 2 with an enormous global footprint, helping it to achieve the biggest worldwide launch of an animated movie ever. On top of that, in just 7 days the movie has already passed the $600M worldwide milestone with $616.7M reported through Tuesday, making it the #6 2025 MPA movie in the world ahead of Superman ($616.6M) and #8 overall accounting for Japan’s Demon Slayer movie ($780M) at #5 and China’s $2B grossing Ne Zha 2 in the top position. Zootopia‘s domestic take of $169.88M means it is far outpacing the 2016 original at this point in its run ($92.6M after 7 days).

Cons

• The original Zootopia only dropped -32% in its second frame, but our panel is looking at a minimum -50% tumble for the sequel from frame one, where it earned $100.2M over the 3-Day. Despite competition from Blumhouse’s teen-appealing PG-13 Five Nights at Freddy’s sequel, we expect Zootopia 2 to continue carrying the big stick at the box office with general audiences and families. We still expect the traditional big post-Thanksgiving drop-off this weekend, but with three healthy blockbusters in play theaters should be in good shape until Avatar: Fire and Ash super-charges ticket sales.

2.Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 Universal Pictures | NEW Weekend Range: $35M – $45M

Pros

• The post-Thanksgiving weekend is usually a slow one, so having Universal and Blumhouse bringing in Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is super helpful. The first movie was Blumhouse’s biggest global earner ever at $297.2M and their fourth domestically at $137.27M, opening to $80M in its first 3 days alone. Director Emma Tammi and the first’s lead Josh Hutcherson are both back, with genre stalwart Mckenna Grace (Ghostbusters franchise, Malignant, Annabelle Comes Home) a new addition. Read our interview with director Emma Tammi on Five Nights at Freddy’s unexpected journey to the big screen.

Cons

• Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 pre-sales and tracking are significantly down from the first, setting off red flags that give us flashbacks to Blumhouse’s summer debacle M3GAN 2.0, which opened -67% below the first installment. This one may have a similar film-to-film opening drop. We are not sure if the last movie’s simultaneous release on Peacock has some folks confused, and the studio also set a strange precedent dropping their recent hit Black Phone 2 onto digital three weeks into release while still #1. The original Five Nights at Freddy’s had an appropriate/less competitive Halloween slot two years ago, but this new one is going against heavy sequel competition from Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good.

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3.Wicked: For Good Universal Pictures | Week 3 Weekend Range: $20M – $30M

Pros

• The good news for Universal is Wicked: For Good is currently on-pace with last year’s first installment, with $275.59M for For Good vs $275.8M for Wicked only 12-days into release. The movie took in $61.7M in its sophomore frame for a steeper-than-hoped -58% drop from its debut, with far more front-loaded earnings. It will likely drop to third position this frame unless Freddy’s wildly under-performs… which it might.

Cons

• Zootopia 2 took a genuine bite out of the second Wicked‘s momentum this past weekend, much more so than Moana 2 did to last year’s first installment. Solid but still weaker reviews for this second trip to Oz may have dinged it, and now the Universal marketing machine is putting its muscle behind Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 to solidify that as their next viable four-quadrant horror franchise. Having only brought in less than half of the domestic take overseas, it will take a lot of “there’s no place like home” to whisk this movie back to the last one’s global total.