Giants vs Patriots AI Predictions for Monday Night Football 2025

The New York Giants visit the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 13 of the 2025 season, and most Giants vs Patriots AI predictions point to a New England win. The matchup kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on December 1, 2025 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with the Patriots entering at 10-2 and the Giants at 2-10.

The Patriots are chasing the AFC’s top seed after a nine game winning streak, while the Giants have already been eliminated from playoff contention and are playing for pride and development. Rookie quarterbacks Drake Maye and Jaxson Dart headline the night, with both under heavy focus from data driven projection models and national analysts.

How Giants vs Patriots AI Predictions View the Matchup

Across public analytical models and expert previews, the core theme is consistent. New England is expected to control most of the game, but the gap is not projected to be massive. Many simulations cluster around a one score margin, often in the mid twenties to high teens range for the final score.

AI projections built on player tracking data and team efficiency numbers typically place Drake Maye in the 230 to 260 passing yard window with around two touchdown passes and roughly one turnover risk. That aligns with his regular season line so far, where he has passed for just over 3,100 yards with 21 touchdowns and six interceptions, one of the most productive campaigns by any quarterback this season. TreVeyon Henderson is generally projected in the 70 to 80 rushing yard range with strong odds of finding the end zone, while Stefon Diggs profiles as Maye’s primary target with something close to 80 to 90 receiving yards on high volume catches.

On the Giants side, models expect Jaxson Dart to keep the passing game respectable, even against a disciplined Patriots defense. Projections usually slot him between 210 and 240 passing yards with at least one touchdown and a similar interception risk, which mirrors his current season totals of more than 1,400 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. is forecast as a key dual threat, often projected in the low 60s for rushing yards with added value as a receiver, while Wan’Dale Robinson is viewed as the high volume short and intermediate option who can move the chains and approach 70 to 80 receiving yards.

Injuries are a major input for every AI model in this matchup. The Patriots have multiple concerns on the offensive line, including issues at center and with depth at tackle, while edge rusher Harold Landry III has been monitored due to a knee problem. The Giants, meanwhile, are without pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and have cycled through a long injury list on both sides of the ball, even though key targets such as Robinson and Darius Slayton are available for this game.

ESPN’s analytics give New England a modest but clear edge in win probability, sitting in the mid fifty percent range in favor of the Patriots. That number reflects both the talent gap and home field advantage, yet also respects the possibility that a healthier Giants offense led by Dart can keep things tight deep into the fourth quarter.

Key Factors Behind Giants vs Patriots AI Projections

Form and consistency explain why almost every model leans toward the Patriots. New England has not lost in two months and leads the NFL with a 10-2 record, driven by efficient passing from Maye, a balanced ground attack with Henderson, and a defense that generates steady pressure without constant blitzing. The Giants arrive at 2-10, have struggled to close games, and have blown late leads in several recent weeks, which drags down their late game win probability in most simulations.

Trench play is another key factor. The Patriots offensive line is banged up, with multiple starters either out or listed as questionable, which gives the Giants front a potential path to disrupt Maye if they can win first and second down. At the same time, the Giants protection has been inconsistent all season, and AI models weigh heavily the risk that New England’s front seven can force Dart into hurried throws and long down and distance situations that favor the Patriots defense.

Weather and venue also tilt the projections. December conditions at Gillette Stadium are expected to be cold and uncomfortable, which typically benefits a confident home team that runs the ball well and tackles reliably in space. That kind of setting matches New England’s identity under Mike Vrabel and reinforces projections that show the Patriots leaning on Henderson, play action concepts with Maye, and physical defense to slowly pull in front over four quarters.

All of this leads to a fairly narrow band of likely outcomes in most advanced models. A blowout win for New England is seen as less likely than a controlled, methodical victory, while a Giants upset usually requires multiple explosive plays from Dart and Robinson along with sudden breakdowns from a Patriots offense that has been steady all year. Expert pick roundups heavily favor New England as well, with many national analysts landing around a seven to ten point margin for the Patriots.

Putting those trends and numbers together, my own projection lands very close to the consensus range: Patriots 27, Giants 20, with New England extending its win streak yet again while the Giants show enough fight to keep the game competitive into the final quarter.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: What do most Giants vs Patriots AI predictions say about the winner?

Most AI driven models and national analysts expect the Patriots to win at home. The gap is usually one score, not a massive blowout, but New England is clearly favored in the data.

Q2: What is the projected score for Giants vs Patriots on Monday Night Football?

Many projections cluster in the mid twenties for New England and high teens or low twenties for New York. This article’s own forecast is Patriots 27, Giants 20 in a controlled home win.

Q3: Which players are most important in Giants vs Patriots AI projections?

On the Patriots side, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry carry much of the projected production. For the Giants, Jaxson Dart, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Wan’Dale Robinson are central to any upset path.

Q4: Can the Giants realistically upset the Patriots according to the data?

The models lean heavily toward New England, but they do not rule out a Giants upset. New York likely needs explosive plays from Dart and Robinson plus key stops on third down to flip the script.

Q5: How does home field at Gillette Stadium affect Giants vs Patriots AI predictions?

Home field in cold December conditions slightly increases New England’s win probability in most models. It supports a run heavy, physically demanding style that suits the Patriots and makes life harder on a young Giants offense.