Giants vs Patriots Prediction for Monday Night Football: Can New York Shock New England?

The New York Giants visit the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 13 of the 2025 season. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on December 1, 2025 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots enter at 10-2, while the Giants arrive at 2-10 and searching for a statement win.

This game features a marquee quarterback showdown between Drake Maye and returning rookie Jaxson Dart. New England is riding a long winning streak, while New York is adjusting to coaching changes and defensive reshuffling. Below is a full Giants vs Patriots prediction that uses current stats, injuries and form, then ends with a clear projected score.

Form, numbers and injuries behind the Giants vs Patriots prediction

The Patriots come into this matchup as one of the most balanced teams in the league. They are 10-2 with 318 points scored through 12 games, which works out to 26.5 points per game and a top tier scoring offense. Their defense has allowed 226 points, only 18.8 points per game, which places them among the better units in the NFL.

The Giants sit at 2-10 but their offense has improved under interim head coach Mike Kafka. New York is averaging 22.0 points per game this season, a noticeable jump from recent years. The problem has been on defense, where the Giants are giving up 27.8 points per game and rank near the bottom of the league in both points and yards allowed.

Drake Maye has been the engine of the Patriots attack. According to NFL.com, he entered Week 13 leading the league with a 71.0 percent completion rate and 3,130 passing yards, placing him firmly in the early MVP conversation. He has spread the ball to Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry and a growing cast of weapons, while the run game led by TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson keeps defenses honest.

On the other side, Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion and gives the Giants a dual threat element again. The latest injury report lists Dart as a full practice participant, with 1,417 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions, plus 317 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns this season. His ability to extend plays and threaten the edge is one of the best tools New York has to stress New England’s defense.

Injuries will still shape this game. The Giants are without edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux because of a shoulder injury, and several linebackers and defensive backs are listed as questionable. New England has its own concerns on the offensive line, including starting center Garrett Bradbury, who was added to the report with an illness after left tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson had already been ruled out.

New York also changed defensive coordinators after repeated late game collapses, replacing Shane Bowen with Charlie Bullen. The defense is still trying to stabilize, even with impact players like Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence up front. That transition period matters in any Giants vs Patriots prediction, especially against a quarterback as efficient as Maye.

Matchups that decide Giants vs Patriots

The first key matchup is Drake Maye against the Giants secondary. New York has struggled to defend the pass for most of the season and ranks near the bottom of the league in opponent yards per play. New England’s offense has shown it can win in different ways, but when Maye is in rhythm, the Patriots are comfortable pushing the ball downfield or attacking intermediate zones.

Without Thibodeaux, the Giants’ pass rush leans even more on Brian Burns and interior pressure from Lawrence. If New York can win early downs and force longer third downs, Maye will see more complex looks and potential pressure. However, the Patriots’ quick passing game and use of tight ends make it difficult to consistently get home, even behind a banged up line.

On the other side, Dart’s mobility is the X factor. The Giants offense has been most dangerous when it leans into his legs and short area weapons like Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton. New England’s defense ranks among the league’s better groups against the run and has held up well in the red zone, so designed quarterback runs and bootlegs could be New York’s best path to explosive plays.

The Patriots’ pass rush, including Harold Landry and a deep rotation up front, will test a Giants offensive line that has allowed pressure at key moments all year. If Dart is forced into obvious passing downs, New England can tighten coverage and create takeaway chances. That risk increases late in halves, when the Patriots have frequently closed drives with sacks or negative plays.

Coaching and situational football also tilt slightly toward New England. Mike Vrabel’s team has won several tight games this season and is on a long winning streak, while the Giants have lost multiple contests after holding late leads and are adjusting to new voices on both sides of the ball. That history matters in a prime time setting where decisions in the fourth quarter usually decide the final result.

Final Giants vs Patriots prediction and score outlook

When you pull everything together, the Patriots still have the clearer path to a win. They have the more established quarterback, a more consistent defense and home field advantage. Their offense averages 26.5 points per game and faces a Giants defense that has allowed nearly 28 points per game and struggled in red zone stops.

The Giants are not without hope. Their offense has quietly climbed into the league’s top third in yards per game, and Dart’s return gives them a higher ceiling than they showed with backups. If New York can protect the ball, hit a few explosive plays to Robinson and Slayton and finish drives instead of settling for short field goals, they can keep this game close into the fourth quarter.

However, New England’s defensive structure, Maye’s efficiency and the Patriots’ ability to close games still separate the two teams. The Giants’ defensive issues, plus their history of late game breakdowns, make it hard to forecast a full four quarter upset on the road against one of the league’s hottest teams.

Giants vs Patriots prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 20. Expect Dart and the Giants offense to move the ball and show progress, but Maye and a well rounded Patriots roster remain the safer pick to control the game, protect their lead in the AFC East and extend their winning streak under the Monday night lights.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: What is the main Giants vs Patriots prediction for Monday Night Football?

The main prediction is that the Patriots will win a competitive game at home. New England’s balance on offense and defense gives them the edge, while the Giants remain dangerous but inconsistent. A one score margin feels realistic.

Q2: Can the Giants pull off an upset against the Patriots?

Yes, an upset is possible, but the margin for error is small. The Giants likely need a clean turnover sheet, a strong night from Jaxson Dart as both passer and runner and better late game execution on defense than they have shown so far this season.

Q3: What is the projected score for Giants vs Patriots tonight?

This prediction forecasts a 27 20 win for New England. That score reflects the Patriots’ typical offensive output, the Giants’ improved scoring under Mike Kafka and New York’s ongoing issues on defense, especially in the red zone.

Q4: Which players could decide the Giants vs Patriots game?

Drake Maye and Jaxson Dart headline the matchup at quarterback. On defense, Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence are key for the Giants, while players like Harold Landry and the Patriots secondary need to contain Dart’s scrambling and short passing attack.

Q5: How does Jaxson Dart’s return change the Giants vs Patriots prediction?

Dart’s return raises the Giants’ offensive ceiling and makes them more unpredictable. It narrows the gap, but does not fully erase New England’s advantages in defensive consistency, turnover margin and late game experience at this stage of the season.