Assam: Grassland and agricultural land will increase in Kaziranga by 2050

INTERNATIONAL DESK: Water bodies, sand or dry river beds, and forests will decrease in Kaziranga while the area covered by grasslands and agricultural land will increase by 2050, a satellite data study has forecasted.

A study “Land Use and Land Cover Change Monitoring and Prediction of a UNESCO World Heritage Site: Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone Using Cellular Automata-Markov Model” carried out by researchers from the Geography Department of Gauhati University in collaboration with different institutions has attempted to analyse the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone using remote sensing data. Satellite remote sensing and the geographic information system (GIS) are widely used for monitoring, mapping, and change detection of LULC change dynamics.

The changing rate was assessed using thirty years (1990–2020) of data.

“Between 1990 and 2020, waterbodies, grassland, and agricultural land decreased by 18.4, 9.96, and 64.88%, respectively, while sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas increased by 103.72, 6.96, and 89.03%, respectively. The result shows that the area covered with water bodies, grassland, and agricultural land is mostly converted into built-up areas and sand or dry river bed areas. According to this study, by 2050, water bodies, sand or dry river beds, and forests will decrease by 3.67, 3.91, and 7.11%, respectively; while grassland and agriculture will increase by up to 16.67% and 0.37%, respectively” the study says.

The Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone is located on the edge of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot region. In 1985, the Kaziranga National Park (KNP) was declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. The study area consists of the KNP and the eco-sensitive zone within a 10km radius around it.

“The study area is one of the famous national parks in India, and biologically, it has a lot of significance. Kaziranga is regarded as one of the oldest wildlife refuges in the world. The park’s contribution in saving the Indian one-horned rhinoceros from the brink of extinction at the turn of the 20th century to harbouring the single largest population of this species is a spectacular conservation achievement. Therefore, LULC change in this national park is a burning issue concerning conservation” the study says.

The study divided the landscape into six distinct types: waterbodies, sand or dry river beds, grassland, forest, built-up area, and agricultural lands to study the shifts in land use and land cover.

The eco-sensitive zone surrounding Kaziranga has undergone numerous changes over the past 30 years due to both human and natural causes. Several LULC classes in the area exhibit a notable anomaly. “Between 1990 and 2020, nearly 264.39 sq km of agricultural land was lost. Most agricultural land has been transformed into urban areas. The built-up areas in the surrounding eco-sensitive zone are continuously expanding, despite all the rules and restrictions. This increasing trend of built-up areas is associated with development around the KNP” the study says.

The study says the region mainly faces many challenges regarding the growing human intervention in this eco-sensitive zone, which covers a largely populated area. This area plays a vital role in maintaining the ecosystem. “Because of constant human influence, this area is slowly losing its natural characteristics. In particular, because of growing tourism activity, the southern part of the region now sees an increase in the surface that is occupied by built-up areas and roads, which represent a serious disturbance to the free movements of the animals. We hope that the findings of this study will help the relevant authorities and policymakers to practice more environmentally responsible land and natural hazard management” it said.

In addition, the NH-37 passes through the heart of the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone, and it is along this highway that, due to development, the population has begun to increase rapidly. Because of this, less agricultural land and forest have been left. From 2010 to 2020, the study area was negatively impacted by the expansion of the built-up area in the southern part of the region, which is primarily bounded by the Karbi Anglong hills. The expansion of sand and dry river beds is a major problem, especially in the northern part of the study region which has led to a decline in the size of the body of water over the past three “If the current trend continues, the built-up area, sand or dry river beds, and grassland are expected to increase, while water bodies, forests, and agricultural land will decrease” the study says.

Human interference, and urban sprawl, in particular, is a major issue in the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone. From 1990 to 2020, there has been consistent growth in the built-up areas. The growth of human settlements obstructs animal migration routes, reduces wildlife habitat, and cuts off the eco-sensitive zone from the rest of the natural environment.

The good news is that the forest cover and grassland cover of the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone were preserved throughout the study period despite numerous threats and changes. “There has been some success in reestablishing forests and grasslands in areas where they had been lost, thanks to initiatives and policies implemented by state governments. Upon the order of the Gauhati High Court, Assam’s state government began an eviction program in 2015, clearing 600 households from the area around Kaziranga National Park. The eco-sensitive zone around Kaziranga can expand and reclaim more forest thanks to this eviction. It is good news for the local ecosystem that some of the agricultural lands will be converted into grassland after the eviction process,” it said.(EM)