Heightened Terror Risk Could Reignite India-Pakistan Conflict in 2026, Warns Think Tank

A prominent US think tank warns of a renewed military clash between India and Pakistan in 2026. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) released its annual risk assessment this week. It cites heightened terrorist activity as the most likely trigger for conflict.This prediction places the long-standing regional rivalry as a moderate-risk global flashpoint. According to the report, this has significant implications for international stability and US security interests.

Assessment Points to Moderate Likelihood of Clash

The CFR’s “Conflicts to Watch in 2026” report surveys American foreign policy experts. It ranks global contingencies by their likelihood and potential impact on US interests. The potential India-Pakistan conflict falls into a Tier II category.This tier indicates a scenario with both moderate likelihood and moderate impact. The specific contingency named is a “renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity.” The report references recent history, including the four-day military conflict in May of this year.That conflict saw India launch precision strikes it called ‘Operation Sindoor’. The action followed a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam. The CFR suggests the second Trump administration sought to end this and other ongoing conflicts.

Broader Global Context and Political Claims

The report frames its warning within a broader critique of US foreign policy direction. It expresses concern that current approaches may alienate allies. It calls for more emphasis on upstream peace and stability efforts in key regions.This analysis comes amid recurring claims from former President Donald Trump. He has stated he personally intervened to stop the May conflict, even averting a “potential nuclear war.” Indian officials have previously rejected such claims of external mediation.The CFR list includes several other global risks for 2026. A Tier I high-likelihood, high-impact scenario involves escalated Israeli-Palestinian violence in the West Bank. Other flagged risks include an intensified Russia-Ukraine war and disruptive AI-enabled cyberattacks on US infrastructure.

Global Preparations Begin for New Year 2026 Celebrations and Wishes

The CFR’s stark warning underscores how regional terrorism remains a potent threat to global peace. A potential India-Pakistan conflict in 2026 is now formally on the radar of international security analysts.

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Q1: How likely is this India-Pakistan conflict according to the report?

The CFR categorizes it as Tier II, meaning a conflict has a “moderate likelihood” of occurring. The potential impact on US interests is also considered moderate compared to other global risks they assessed.

Q2: What does the report say caused the 2025 conflict?

It references India’s ‘Operation Sindoor’ strikes. These were a direct military response to a major terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed civilians, highlighting the ongoing trigger of cross-border militancy.

Q3: What other conflicts are flagged as high risk?

The highest risk (Tier I) is increased conflict between Israeli forces and Palestinians in the West Bank. An intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war is also a major concern for experts.

Q4: How does the Trump administration factor into this?

The report notes the administration sought to end several conflicts, including between India and Pakistan. However, it criticizes the overall approach for potentially alienating allies and not focusing enough on preventive measures.

Q5: Is a Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict also predicted?

Yes. The report lists a “moderate likelihood” of armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026. It would be triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks, showing regional instability.