Ian Machado Garry Heavily Favored to Defeat Belal Muhammad at UFC Qatar

Ian Machado Garry enters his UFC Qatar bout as a significant favorite. The rising star faces former champion Belal Muhammad on November 22, 2025. This welterweight clash takes place at the ABHA Arena in Doha.

The fight’s outcome has major implications for the title picture. A decisive win could propel Garry directly into a championship bout.

Analyzing the Lopsided Betting Odds

Betting markets strongly favor the Irish contender. Garry opened at -270 odds according to major sportsbooks. Muhammad returns as a +220 underdog.

This wide margin surprises some observers given Muhammad’s #2 ranking. However, Garry’s perfect UFC record and striking prowess justify the confidence.

All five analysts at Bloody Elbow predict Garry will win. They unanimously see him taking a decision victory.

Statistical Breakdown Favors the Rising Contender

Garry holds distinct advantages in key performance metrics. His striking accuracy stands at 58.59% compared to Muhammad’s 51.04%.

This precision becomes increasingly important over five rounds. Clean, consistent shot-making accumulates damage and scores points with judges.

Garry also maintains a higher output of significant strikes per minute. His activity level could overwhelm Muhammad if sustained throughout the fight.

The Path to Victory for Both Fighters

Garry’s game plan should emphasize distance management and volume striking. Keeping the fight standing allows his technical advantages to shine.

He must avoid Muhammad’s wrestling and clinch attempts. The former champion will likely pursue takedowns to neutralize Garry’s striking.

Muhammad’s path involves making this an ugly, physical fight. His experience in championship rounds could prove valuable if the bout reaches later stages.

The outcome may hinge on whether Muhammad can implement his grappling game. If he fails, Garry’s technical superiority should carry the day.

Title Implications Hang in the Balance

The winner positions themselves for a shot at champion Islam Makhachev. Current #1 contender Jack Della Maddalena awaits the next title opportunity.

Garry’s rapid ascent through the division makes him an attractive challenger. His undefeated UFC run generates significant promotional interest.

Muhammad seeks to reclaim his status after losing to Makhachev in his last outing. A victory would reaffirm his place among the division’s elite.

This matchup represents the classic clash of rising talent against established veteran. Both men understand what’s at stake in the co-main event spotlight.

Ian Machado Garry has everything working in his favor heading into UFC Qatar. The statistics, odds, and expert opinions all point toward his hand being raised. Barring a vintage performance from the former champion, Garry should secure his title shot with another impressive victory.

Dropping this nugget your way

What time does the Ian Machado Garry fight start?

The main card begins at 1 PM ET. Garry’s co-main event bout will follow the preliminary fights.

Where can I watch UFC Qatar?

The event streams exclusively on ESPN+. Subscription is required to view the fights.

What is Ian Machado Garry’s professional record?

Garry holds a 16-1 professional record. His only loss came early in his career outside the UFC.

How does this fight affect the welterweight rankings?

The winner likely moves into title contention. Garry could jump several spots with a victory over the #2 ranked Muhammad.

What are Belal Muhammad’s chances of winning?

Muhammad’s path involves wrestling and pressure. His experience gives him a legitimate chance despite being the underdog.

Who is the current UFC welterweight champion?

Islam Makhachev currently holds the welterweight title. He defeated Belal Muhammad in his most recent defense.