Inflation Data in Focus: Private CPI Reports Gain Importance Amid Government Shutdown

Inflation remains a critical concern for the U.S. economy as 2025 continues. The official government data, however, has hit a significant roadblock. According to Bloomberg, the release of key October economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs data, has been delayed due to an ongoing federal government shutdown.

This disruption leaves a major information gap for markets and policymakers. In the absence of official numbers, private data sources are stepping into the spotlight to provide clarity.

Numerator’s CPI Shows Persistent Price Pressures

A key source of this alternative data is Numerator, a consumer behavior analytics firm. Their proprietary CPI, which tracks everyday household goods, showed a year-over-year increase of 2.68% in October. This follows monthly increases of 0.60% in September and 0.32% in August.

The data points to what Numerator CEO Eric Belcher describes as “sticky” inflation. The report confirms that consumers are still facing higher prices, particularly for groceries and other essential items. This consistent upward trend suggests underlying inflationary pressures have not fully subsided.

Why Private Data Is Filling the Void

The government shutdown has halted the work of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This makes the release of the official CPI and employment situation reports impossible for now. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed the delay, highlighting the widespread impact on economic planning.

This situation forces investors and analysts to rely more heavily on private sector data. Firms like Numerator use real-time transaction data from a large panel of households. Their reports offer a timely, though narrower, glimpse into price movements that the market desperately needs.

Market Reactions and Economic Uncertainty

The lack of official data creates significant uncertainty. The Federal Reserve uses these reports to guide its interest rate decisions. Without them, policymakers are left with an incomplete picture of the economy’s health. This could complicate efforts to manage inflation without triggering a recession.

Financial markets are also navigating blindly. Investors typically use CPI data to adjust their expectations for interest rates and corporate earnings. The current data vacuum increases market volatility and makes strategic planning more difficult for businesses and consumers alike.

The delayed official CPI report underscores the economy’s fragile state. Relying on private data highlights the critical need for timely government statistics to ensure stable and informed economic decision-making for the nation.

Info at your fingertips

What is the Numerator CPI?

It is a private consumer price index from the data firm Numerator. It tracks price changes for everyday household goods using real-time transaction data from a large panel of U.S. households.

Why is the official CPI report delayed?

The release is delayed due to the federal government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the report, is not fully operational.

How does the shutdown affect the Federal Reserve?

The Fed relies on official data like the CPI to make interest rate decisions. The delay leaves policymakers with less information, potentially complicating their efforts to fight inflation effectively.

What items are seeing the highest price increases?

According to private data, groceries and household essentials continue to experience significant price pressures. This is a major contributor to the feeling of ongoing inflation for consumers.