Why India’s SCO membership still matters as China strengthens its hand in Central Asia

INTERNATIONAL DESK: Last month, as global leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Hiroshima for the G7 summit, China was hosting its inaugural ‘China-Central Asia Summit’ (C+C5) in Xi’an.

At this summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasised the need to work together for a “China-Central Asia community with a shared future”.

The Xi’an summit — which saw participation of heads of state of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — was used by President Xi as an opportunity to “cement and boost its strategic cooperation with Central Asia,” said the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a New Delhi-based think tank.

As China looks to strengthen its foothold in Central Asia, through forums such as C+C5, what does it mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)?

SCO, an eight-member bloc, has four of five Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — as members, along with China, Russia, India and Pakistan. It was formally established on 15 June, 2001, by the heads of state of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

It was a culmination of about five years of ‘confidence building measures’ in the military field and on ‘mutual reduction’ of armed forces in the border areas of China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan in 1996 and 1997. This grouping — then known as the ‘Shanghai Five’ — formally approved the joining of Uzbekistan on 14 June, 2001, before declaring the formation of the SCO a day later.

India and Pakistan were made observers of the SCO in 2005 and were officially admitted into the SCO at the Ufa Summit of 2015. India and Pakistan formally joined the SCO in 2017 during the Astana Summit.

The SCO has seven formal bodies as per its ‘Charter’. The highest decision-making body is the Council of Heads of State. The Council meets annually, and this year is being hosted by India, albeit in a virtual mode, on 4 July.

So, does C+C5 negatively impact the SCO? Ayjaz Wani, a fellow with ORF, doesn’t think so. “Similar to India having multiple bilateral and multilateral forums with partners, the C+C5 is an avenue for China to strengthen its relationship with the Central Asian nations, without undermining the SCO,” he told ThePrint.

“With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Central Asian nations are feeling threatened. China, which has historically been the economic guarantor of the region, is now stepping up its influence as a security guarantor, a role traditionally held by Russia,” he added.

Echoing his thoughts, Avinash Anil Godbole, an associate professor of international relations and China studies at the O.P. Jindal Global University said, “there is not much choice for the landlocked states in Central Asia. Since Russia is weak at this point, they lean more towards China. They also fear a fate similar to Ukraine and that is why show of strength is important to them.”

Is China looking to strengthen its role in Central Asia through C+C5?
According to experts, the soft power of Russia — especially since the collapse of the USSR — has positioned it as a natural security partner for the Central Asian nations. One of the key elements of Russia’s soft power in the region is its extensive influence through the Russian language.

Nevertheless, China is looking to strengthen its role in the region, while creating the image of a long cultural relationship with the Central Asian Republics (CAR).

This can be seen in President Xi Jinping’s statement during the C+C5 summit, highlighting the role of Xi’an as the “starting point for the ancient Silk Road”, and the “millennia-old” friendship between China and Central Asia.

“The Russian language will sustain the Russian soft power in the region, China cannot replace that. Also, China’s hard hand in Xinjiang does not go well with its soft power policy towards Central Asian nations. The economic shift towards China is the major issue. CARs also need a growing market like China and to create alternatives because of sanctions on Russia,” Godbole said.

“The C+C5 forum helps China to expand its engagement with the region. China wants to minimise the external influence in the region and would use all options to extend its influence and create the theatrics of its natural leadership too,” he added.

Does India gain from its membership in the SCO?
Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at ORF, feels intergovernmental forums like the G20 or SCO don’t have much to show for them. “There have been no specific returns from being a member of the SCO so far. Nevertheless, being there allows you to block any measure against your interests,” he told ThePrint. “There has been no real economic gain from the SCO, or even greater counter-terrorism and intelligence sharing,” he added.

Godbole’s view on the matter, with regards to intelligence gathering and counter-terrorism activities, differed slightly. “India’s counter-terrorism cooperation has increased significantly,” he told ThePrint.

“For India, security priorities have shifted since 2017. At the time, it was the ability to have a stronger say in what happens in Afghanistan. Now that is nearly out of the window. Connectivity may be another opportunity but things move slowly on that front as usual,” Godbole added.

Sanjay Kumar Pandey, a professor with the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, explained to ThePrint that by being a member of the SCO, India is also preventing Pakistan and China from pulling Russia towards their agenda

“Russia needed a counterweight to China in the SCO, especially as Russia is not comfortable with China’s growing role in Central Asia,” he added.

Experts also highlighted how being a part of the SCO would ensure India remains relevant in the larger Eurasian sphere of influence, especially with the SCO approving both the applications of Iran and Belarus as members of the organisation.

“If nothing else, being a member of the SCO helps India engage with Central Asian nations and soon the larger Eurasian sphere of nations. Our absence would allow the SCO to be used against us. By being a member of the organisation, we are ensuring our relevance in the larger Eurasian region, as the SCO looks to expand its membership,” added Pandey.

Speaking on whether the SCO will go the way of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) with both India and Pakistan as members, Pandey said: “Both Russia and China take the SCO seriously. The SCO is extremely important for the Central Asian Republics. China has been championing the organisation, named after one of its own cities. The seriousness by which these members participate in the SCO, will ensure it will not become another SAARC.”

“Though being in the organisation is better than being out of it, the fact that India is hosting the SCO leaders summit virtually, is a sign of our inability to paper over the cracks (in relations with China and Pakistan),” added Joshi. (THE PRINT)