Lanús Favored with 56% Win Probability Over Atlético Mineiro in Copa Sudamericana Final

Club Atlético Lanús enters the Copa Sudamericana final as the statistical favorite. The Argentine side holds a 56% win probability against Brazil’s Atlético Mineiro. The decisive match is set for November 22 at the Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción, Paraguay.

This prediction highlights a significant clash of form and history. Lanús seeks a second continental crown, while their opponents are in their first final.

Why the Numbers Heavily Favor Lanús

The 56% edge is not arbitrary. It is rooted in starkly contrasting recent records. Lanús boasts a formidable 90% home win rate in this competition.

They have won nine of their last ten home matches. This provides a massive psychological boost in Paraguay.

Conversely, Atlético Mineiro’s away form is a major concern. The Brazilian club has lost six of its last ten matches on the road.

This 60% away loss rate presents a serious hurdle. Overcoming it in a final is a tall order.

Head-to-Head Form and Tournament Pedigree

Lanús brings invaluable experience to this stage. They previously contested the Copa Sudamericana final in 2020.

That prior experience, even in a loss, is an asset. Atlético Mineiro has no such final history to draw upon.

Both teams have shown attacking prowess recently. Each scored at least two goals in three separate tournament games.

This suggests an open, entertaining final is likely. Defensive errors could prove decisive.

Squad News Tilt the Scale Further

Team availability deepens Lanús’s advantage. They face the absence of midfielder Raúl Loaiza due to injury.

Yet their defensive core remains intact. Goalkeeper Nahuel Losada and defender Carlos Izquierdoz have played every minute.

Atlético Mineiro’s defensive woes are more severe. Key defenders Alan Franco, Junior Santos, and Lyanco are sidelined.

Coach Jorge Sampaoli must patch together a backline. This instability is a major vulnerability against a confident opponent.

The statistical model giving Lanús a 56% win probability reflects concrete competitive realities. Their home strength and opponent’s away struggles create a clear path to victory in the Copa Sudamericana final.

Thought you’d like to know

Q1: When and where is the 2025 Copa Sudamericana final?

The final is scheduled for Saturday, November 22, 2025. It will be held at the Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción, Paraguay.

Q2: Why is Lanús considered the favorite?

Lanús is favored due to a strong 56% win probability. This stems from their exceptional home form and Atlético Mineiro’s poor away record.

Q3: Has Atlético Mineiro ever won this tournament?

No, Atlético Mineiro has never won the Copa Sudamericana. This 2025 final marks their first-ever appearance in the tournament’s deciding match.

Q4: What is Lanús’s record in Copa Sudamericana finals?

Lanús has one previous final appearance, in 2020. They lost that match 3-0 to Defensa y Justicia.

Q5: Who are the key players to watch for Lanús?

Watch for goalkeeper Nahuel Losada and defender Carlos Izquierdoz. They have provided a consistent and reliable defensive foundation throughout the campaign.

Q6: What are the main injury concerns for Atlético Mineiro?

Atlético Mineiro has significant defensive injuries. Alan Franco, Junior Santos, and Lyanco are all ruled out, forcing a makeshift lineup.