The 2025 NFL season enters its final seven weeks. The AFC playoff picture is taking a dramatic shape. Contenders are now separated by their remaining strength of schedule. This final stretch will decide division crowns and wild-card spots.
According to analysis of combined opponent win percentages, the paths vary wildly. Some teams face a gauntlet, while others have a clearer runway to the postseason. The outcomes will profoundly impact the final standings.
Colts and Texans Confront League’s Toughest Schedules
The Indianapolis Colts face the most difficult remaining schedule in the AFC. Every one of their final opponents currently has a .500 record or better. This includes two crucial games apiece against the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Their division lead is far from secure. How they perform in these key divisional matchups will likely determine the AFC South champion. The Colts’ ability to handle this pressure will be tested.
The Houston Texans have the conference’s fifth-toughest slate. Their path is also filled with winning teams. Winnable games against the Cardinals and Raiders offer brief respites.
Their two games against the Colts are pivotal for the division race. Contests against the Bills, Chiefs, and Chargers will be critical for wild-card tiebreakers. Their postseason hopes hinge on navigating this tough landscape.
Chiefs in Unfamiliar Peril as Broncos Seize Control
The Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in a precarious position. At 5-5, they risk missing the playoffs in the Patrick Mahomes era. Their remaining schedule is the 12th toughest in the AFC.
Losses to key rivals like the Bills and Chargers complicate their path. They hold few tiebreakers against other wild-card contenders. Their margin for error is now extremely slim.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have capitalized on their opportunities. Their win over the Chiefs cemented them as AFC West favorites. They also possess the 23rd toughest remaining schedule.
This favorable path positions Denver not just to win the division. They are also in the running for the coveted No. 1 seed and a first-round playoff bye. Their late-season schedule sets them up for success.
Patriots and Jaguars Benefit from Favorable Finishes
The New England Patriots, riding an eight-game win streak, have the second-easiest schedule in the entire NFL. This positions them strongly to maintain their AFC East lead over the Buffalo Bills.
A pivotal home game against Buffalo could seal the division. With few challenging games left, New England is a serious threat for the conference’s top seed. Their momentum and schedule create a powerful combination.
The Jacksonville Jaguars also benefit from an easy closing stretch. They hold the final playoff spot and have the 28th toughest schedule. Games against the Titans, Jets, and Cardinals are highly winnable.
They also hold tiebreakers over the Chiefs and Chargers. This combination gives them an excellent chance to secure a wild-card berth. They could even challenge for the AFC South title if the Colts stumble.
The final stretch of the AFC season promises high drama. The divergent strength of schedule will be a defining factor in the final NFL playoff picture. Every game carries immense weight as teams fight for their postseason lives.
Thought you’d like to know
Which AFC team has the hardest remaining schedule?
The Indianapolis Colts face the most difficult path. Every one of their remaining opponents has a record of .500 or better. This includes two critical games against both the Texans and Jaguars.
Are the Kansas City Chiefs in danger of missing the playoffs?
Yes, the Chiefs are in an unfamiliar fight for a postseason spot. Their 5-5 record and losses to key rivals have put them in a precarious position. Their remaining schedule offers little room for error.
Which team is the current favorite to win the AFC West?
The Denver Broncos are now the clear favorites. Their victory over the Chiefs and a favorable remaining schedule have given them control. They are also in contention for the AFC’s number one seed.
How does strength of schedule impact the playoff race?
It significantly affects a team’s chances of winning down the stretch. Teams with easier schedules, like the Patriots and Jaguars, have a clearer path. Teams with harder schedules face a more challenging climb.
Can the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South?
It is possible, but they need help. The Jaguars would likely need to sweep their two games against the Indianapolis Colts. They also need the Colts to falter against other tough opponents on their schedule.
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