Feinberg Forecast Updates Post-Festival Oscar Predictions

The race for the 98th Academy Awards is officially underway. Major film festivals have concluded, and studio campaigns are in full swing. According to industry tracking, several films have solidified their positions as early frontrunners.

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (Focus Features) gained significant momentum by winning the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award. This award often predicts Best Picture Oscar success. Meanwhile, Venice awarded its top prize to Father Mother Sister Brother.

Oscar Frontrunners Dominate Key Categories

Hamnet leads the pack for Best Picture. Its Toronto win historically signals strong Academy support. Other major contenders include Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value (Neon) and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (Warner Bros.).

Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite (Netflix) has stunned Los Angeles screening audiences. The film addresses nuclear proliferation with powerful effect. It has drawn comparisons to the influential 1983 television movie The Day After.

In the Best International Feature category, Brazil’s submission The Secret Agent (Neon) is generating significant buzz. Its director Kleber Mendonça Filho and star Wagner Moura are both considered strong contenders. Poland has entered Agnieszka Holland’s Kafka, which is currently seeking U.S. distribution.

Acting Races Take Shape With Veteran and Newcomer Contenders

The Best Actor category appears highly competitive. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and George Clooney (Jay Kelly) are considered frontrunners. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) also feature prominently in early predictions.

Best Actress sees Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) leading the conversation. Emma Stone could secure another nomination for Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia. Jennifer Lawrence also appears in the mix for Lynne Ramsay’s Die My Love.

Supporting categories feature familiar Oscar faces. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Paul Mescal (Hamnet) are predicted to compete for Best Supporting Actor. For Supporting Actress, Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) are seen as early favorites.

The 2025 Oscar race remains fluid with many major films still under embargo. However, the festival season has provided crucial early indicators. These Oscar predictions will evolve as more voters see the contending films throughout the fall.

Thought you’d like to know

Which film won the Toronto People’s Choice Award?

Chloé Zhao’s *Hamnet* won the 2024 Toronto People’s Choice Award. This award frequently predicts the Best Picture Oscar winner, as it did for *Nomadland*, *Green Book*, and *12 Years a Slave*.

Who is the frontrunner for Best Director?

Chloé Zhao (*Hamnet*) and Ryan Coogler (*Sinners*) are considered strong frontrunners. Joachim Trier (*Sentimental Value*) and Kathryn Bigelow (*A House of Dynamite*) are also in the top tier of predictions.

Has Brazil submitted a film for International Feature?

Yes, Brazil submitted Kleber Mendonça Filho’s *The Secret Agent* to the Academy. The film has been received very positively at festival and industry screenings, making it a major contender.

Are there any surprise contenders?

*The Smashing Machine*, directed by Benny Safdie and starring Dwayne Johnson, has emerged as a potential threat in multiple categories. It won Best Director for Safdie at the Venice Film Festival.

Trusted Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline