Padres vs Cubs predictions: Why Cubs edge Game 2 at Wrigley

The Wild Card Series continues today as the Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field at 3:08 p.m. ET. Padres vs Cubs predictions center on a tight matchup with a slight lean to Chicago. The opener is Andrew Kittredge for the Cubs, while Dylan Cease gets the ball for San Diego.

This game follows a low-scoring opener and another cool afternoon on the North Side. The bullpen plan favors Chicago early, with Kittredge setting the tone before a bulk arm enters. San Diego turns to Cease, who ended the regular season strong and brings swing-and-miss stuff.

Key factors for Padres vs Cubs predictions

Market models rate the game near a coin flip, but many projections nudge the Cubs’ win chance slightly above 50%. That small edge comes from home field, bullpen depth, and matchup sequencing. Wrigley tends to amplify run-prevention when the wind knocks balls down, and the Cubs have navigated those conditions well.

Kittredge profiles as a clean first-inning option. He throws strikes, misses barrels, and limits free passes. That can hand Chicago an early leverage advantage before a multi-inning lefty enters to change eye levels and speed. The Cubs’ pen has run top-half metrics across ERA estimators. That is important in a postseason game with quick hooks and short stints.

Cease is the Padres’ counterpunch. He finished the stretch run allowing two or fewer in four of five. His chase and strikeout rates can erase rallies and cover for traffic. San Diego also backs him with one of the league’s most efficient bullpens by ERA, FIP, and WAR over the full season. That means one swing can flip the script if Chicago strands runners.

Offensively, the Cubs’ contact mix against high four-seam velocity has been streaky. They draw walks but can be suppressed by elite sliders. The Padres finished middle to lower half in slugging and OPS down the stretch, which caps ceiling against strikeout arms. That tug-of-war supports a close total and a tight moneyline.

Put it together and the favored angle is modest: Cubs moneyline at a short price, with respect for Cease keeping this within a play or two. If you prefer derivative markets, early unders in the first five can also rate out, given strong opening relief and a deliberate Chicago plan to neutralize the top of San Diego’s order.

What this matchup means

A Cubs win forces San Diego to solve the late-inning mix on the road again. Chicago’s path is run prevention, matchup platoons, and squeezing extra outs from the pen. That approach plays in October, especially at home with a day crowd and colder air.

For the Padres, the route is clear. Cease must stack strikeouts, the defense must convert every ball in play, and one timely extra-base hit has to land. If San Diego grabs a lead by the middle innings, their back-end arms can shorten the game quickly.

Final word: Padres vs Cubs predictions point to Chicago in a one-score game. The Cubs’ bullpen plan, home field, and cleaner early innings make the difference. San Diego still has the higher strikeout starter, so expect tight margins throughout.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: Who is favored in Padres vs Cubs Game 2?

The Cubs are slight favorites at home. Prices are close to even, reflecting a near coin-flip matchup.

Q2: What is the projected total for Padres vs Cubs?

The total sits around 6.5 runs. Model views differ, but early pitching should keep scoring suppressed early.

Q3: Who are the starting pitchers?

The Cubs plan to open with Andrew Kittredge before a bulk innings arm. The Padres start Dylan Cease.

Q4: What is the best bet angle?

A small lean to Cubs moneyline at a short number. First-five under can also fit if weather and bullpen plans hold.

Q5: What time and channel is the game?

First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field. The broadcast is on ABC.