Patriots vs Bengals Week 12 Prediction: New England Heavily Favored as Burrow Sits

The New England Patriots enter Week 12 as commanding favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals. This NFL matchup is set for Sunday, November 23. The Patriots’ dominant 9-2 record clashes with the Bengals’ struggling 3-7 season.

Cincinnati’s situation worsened significantly with quarterback Joe Burrow ruled out. This injury shifts the dynamics entirely, making New England the clear team to beat.

Statistical Breakdown Reveals Mismatch

New England boasts the best rushing defense in the league. They allow just 84.7 yards per game on the ground. Their road record remains perfect at 5-0 this season.

According to ESPN analytics, the Patriots hold a 72% win probability. The point spread favors New England by 6.5 to 7.5 points across major sportsbooks. Moneyline odds sit at Patriots -375.

Cincinnati’s offense already ranked near the bottom of the league. Without Burrow, their scoring potential drops dramatically. Backup quarterback Joe Flacco will start under center.

Injury Report Tilts Scale Further

The Bengals face additional defensive challenges beyond Burrow’s absence. Star defensive end Trey Hendrickson remains sidelined with his own injury. Their pass rush has struggled throughout the season.

New England’s injury report appears much cleaner by comparison. Key players made the trip to Cincinnati despite questionable designations. The Patriots’ overall health gives them another advantage.

Fox Sports analysts note that Cincinnati’s defense ranks in the bottom third for points allowed. They’ve surrendered an average of 22.1 points per game. This plays directly into New England’s offensive strengths.

Historical Context and Betting Lines

The Patriots lead the all-time series against the Bengals 18-10. Recent matchups have typically favored New England. Historical trends support the current betting lines.

The over/under for total points sits around 50-51 points. This suggests a moderately scoring game despite New England’s defensive prowess. Bettors appear confident in both teams contributing to the scoreboard.

Dimers.com projections show New England covering the spread in 55% of simulations. Their advanced models account for Cincinnati’s home field advantage. The numbers still heavily favor the Patriots.

This Patriots vs Bengals matchup appears heavily slanted toward New England given the statistical and injury context. The absence of Joe Burrow fundamentally changes Cincinnati’s offensive capabilities, making New England’s path to victory much clearer for Week 12.

Info at your fingertips

What time does Patriots vs Bengals start?

The game kicks off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 23. It will be broadcast on CBS. The location is Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.

Who is starting quarterback for the Bengals?

Joe Flacco will start for Cincinnati with Joe Burrow injured. Flacco joined the team earlier this season as a backup. He brings veteran experience but limited recent playing time.

What is the Patriots’ road record this season?

New England maintains a perfect 5-0 record away from home. Their road dominance includes wins against several playoff contenders. This streak gives them confidence entering Cincinnati.

How does Cincinnati’s defense rank against the run?

The Bengals allow 112.4 rushing yards per game. This ranks them in the middle of the league. They face New England’s top-ranked rushing defense by comparison.

What’s the over/under for this game?

Sportsbooks set the total around 50-51 points. This suggests a moderate scoring output from both teams. The number accounts for New England’s strong defense and Cincinnati’s offensive limitations.

Has New England covered spreads recently?

The Patriots have covered in six of their eleven games this season. Their consistency makes them reliable against the spread. They’ve particularly excelled as road favorites.