Samsung Smartphone Sales Could Drop 2.1% in 2026 Due to Chip Shortage

Global smartphone shipments are forecast to decline next year. This is according to new data from Counterpoint Research. The drop is linked directly to a growing memory chip shortage.

The shortage is being fueled by massive demand for AI services. This tight supply is expected to drive up production costs. Higher costs will likely lead to increased consumer prices.

Major Brands Face Widespread Market Impact

Counterpoint Research’s report provides specific forecasts. Samsung‘s smartphone sales are projected to fall by 2.1% in 2026. Apple is expected to see a similar 2.2% decrease.

The Chinese brand Honor may face the steepest decline. Its sales could drop by 3.4% year-over-year. This indicates a challenging period for the entire industry.

The impact is not limited to shipment numbers. Component costs are rising across the board. Manufacturers face difficult choices on pricing and production volumes.

Price Hikes May Deter Consumer Purchases

The chip shortage’s most direct effect will be on retail prices. Samsung has already considered price increases for some models. Reports suggest hikes of around $22 for Galaxy A series phones in India.

Similar adjustments could roll out in other regions. Consumers often delay upgrades when prices jump unexpectedly. This hesitation can create a negative cycle for sales.

The situation highlights the fragile nature of global tech supply chains. A surge in demand for one sector, like AI servers, can disrupt another. The smartphone market is now caught in that squeeze.

The 2026 forecast presents a clear challenge for Samsung. Navigating the chip shortage and its effect on smartphone sales will test the company’s supply chain strategy. Market leadership may depend on managing these cost pressures without alienating customers.

Thought you’d like to know

What is the main reason for the predicted sales drop?

The primary cause is a global semiconductor memory chip shortage. This shortage is driven by skyrocketing demand for AI infrastructure. Less supply means higher costs and potentially lower phone shipments.

Which company is forecast to see the biggest decline?

Honor is projected to see the steepest sales drop at 3.4%. Samsung and Apple follow with expected declines of 2.1% and 2.2% respectively. The issue appears to be industry-wide.

Will smartphone prices go up because of this?

Yes, analysts expect consumer prices to rise. Samsung has already considered price increases for its Galaxy A series in some markets. Higher production costs are typically passed to buyers.

How does AI demand affect phone chips?

AI servers and data centers use the same advanced memory chips as smartphones. Massive investment in AI is diverting chip supply away from consumer electronics. This creates competition and scarcity.

Is this a short-term or long-term problem?

It is likely a near-to-mid-term issue. Building new chip manufacturing capacity takes years. The market may face constraints until supply can catch up with the new AI-driven demand.