San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: Game 3 Time, Odds, Picks

The San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Wild Card series ends tonight at Wrigley Field. First pitch is 5:08 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 2. The series is tied 1–1 after two tight, low-scoring games.

Jameson Taillon starts for Chicago. Yu Darvish goes for San Diego. Both managers are expected to use quick hooks and lean on high-leverage bullpen arms.

Padres vs. Cubs Game 3 — essentials, odds, projections

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago. Time: 5:08 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN. Streaming options vary by region. Game 1 went to the Cubs, 3–1. Game 2 went to the Padres, 3–0.

Probable pitchers: Jameson Taillon (CHC) 11–7, 3.68 ERA. Yu Darvish (SD) 5–5, 5.38 ERA. Taillon closed September with a 1.54 ERA. Darvish pitched only 72 innings this season, so his leash should be short.

Market snapshot (pre-game): Cubs around -115 on the moneyline. Cubs +1.5 near -200 on the run line. Total 7.5 runs near -106 to -108 either side. These prices can move fast on elimination days.

Projection highlights: Chicago wins about 59% of simulations. Cubs +1.5 covers about 73% of the time. The Over 7.5 hits about 57.5% of the time. A modeled score of Cubs 4.5, Padres 4.1 reflects a one-run edge with late scoring variance.

Selected player props (example prices vary by book): Taillon strikeouts 2.5 (Over/Under near -118/-112). Darvish strikeouts 3.5 (Over/Under near -128/-104). Manny Machado is a short favorite to homer; Fernando Tatis Jr., Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Jackson Merrill, and Pete Crow-Armstrong follow in the next tier.

Picks, best bets, and how the game could swing

Moneyline: Cubs -117 to -115 (playable zone). Taillon’s command trend and home field give Chicago a small but real edge. Chicago’s top six also owns better recent contact quality.

Run line: Cubs +1.5 (around -198). One-run game risk is high. The extra run protects tight endings and late bullpen swings.

Total: Over 7.5 (light stake). Both teams have seen each other’s relievers for two straight days. Third looks help hitters. Pinch-hit platoons raise late-inning run equity. Consider a small split: full-game Over and a tiny position on a tied score after five innings if your book offers it.

Props, price-sensitive only: Taillon 3+ strikeouts in alternative markets. Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases if priced fairly. Seiya Suzuki to record a hit as a contact-driven anchor.

Context, matchups, and late-inning chess

First leverage pocket matters most. If Chicago strands early Padres traffic, the Cubs can march ground-ball relievers through the middle. If San Diego pushes Taillon out by the fifth, the Padres can shorten the game with power arms.

Batted-ball profile at Wrigley. If wind is neutral, line-drive doubles into the alleys can decide it. If wind knocks balls down, contact and baserunning gain value. Clean infield defense is a hidden edge for both clubs.

Bench usage. Expect early pinch-hit moves for platoon advantages. That raises late variance and supports the Over lean. It also boosts the value of +1.5 run protection.

Bottom line: The San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs decider projects as a one-run game. Lean Cubs on the moneyline, take Cubs +1.5 for coverage, and sprinkle a modest Over 7.5 given the bullpen chess and third-look factor.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: What time is Padres vs. Cubs Game 3?

First pitch is 5:08 p.m. ET. The game is on ESPN nationwide.

Q2: Who are the starting pitchers?

Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. Yu Darvish for the Padres. Both have short leashes in an elimination game.

Q3: What are the model’s best bets?

Cubs moneyline, Cubs +1.5, and a light Over 7.5. The projection shows Chicago winning in about 59% of sims.

Q4: Any safe, low-volatility play?

Cubs +1.5 is the conservative angle. It covers a one-run loss in a tight series.

Q5: Which player prop stands out?

Taillon 3+ strikeouts in alt markets at a fair price. Consider Manny Machado total bases Over if the number is right.