Social Security COLA Set for October Announcement Amid Modest Increase Forecast

Millions of Americans will soon learn the exact size of their Social Security benefit increase for 2026. The Social Security Administration will announce the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) on October 24. This key date follows the release of the final inflation data needed for the calculation.

The announcement confirms payments will adjust on schedule despite recent federal budget uncertainties. According to Reuters, the process will proceed without delay, ensuring benefits for 75 million people are updated for inflation.

How the 2026 COLA is Calculated

The COLA is determined by tracking inflation through the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The calculation specifically compares the average CPI-W from the third quarter of the year to the same period from the previous year. The percentage increase, if any, becomes the following year’s COLA.

Data from July and August has already been recorded. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the critical September inflation report just before the COLA announcement. Based on current CPI-W data, analysts project a modest increase for 2026.

What Beneficiaries Can Expect Financially

Early estimates suggest the 2026 COLA will be approximately 2.7 percent. This is a slight uptick from the 2.5 percent increase recipients saw in 2025. The change reflects a period of cooling inflation compared to recent highs.

For the average retiree, a 2.7 percent COLA would translate to an extra $50 added to their monthly check. This forecasted increase is significantly lower than the historic 8.7 percent COLA in 2023. That jump was a direct response to the high inflation experienced post-pandemic.

The final 2026 Social Security COLA will be officially confirmed on October 24, providing clarity for millions of household budgets. This anticipated adjustment continues a trend of more modest increases as the economy stabilizes.

Info at your fingertips

When will the 2026 COLA be officially announced?

The Social Security Administration will announce the 2026 COLA on October 24. This follows the release of the September inflation report.

How much will my Social Security check increase?

Based on current data, the COLA is forecast to be around 2.7 percent. For the average beneficiary, this means an estimated $50 more per month.

What is the COLA based on?

The COLA is tied to the CPI-W, a specific measure of inflation. It calculates the change in prices from the third quarter of one year to the next.

Why is the 2026 increase smaller than the 2023 COLA?

The 8.7 percent COLA in 2023 was a response to a period of very high inflation. The current economic climate features much lower inflation, leading to a more modest adjustment.

When will I see the increased payment?

The new benefit amount will begin with payments issued in January 2026. The increase will be reflected in all checks from that month forward.

Trusted Sources: Reuters, AARP, Social Security Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics