South Carolina Basketball Defies Odds with Surprising NCAA Tournament Pathway

South Carolina’s men’s basketball team faces a tough season ahead. The Gamecocks were picked to finish last in the SEC by both media and coaches. This prediction follows a difficult previous year with only two conference wins.

But the mood within the program is unexpectedly hopeful. Coaches and players believe they can be competitive. According to analyst Evan Miyakawa, data suggests a small path to success exists.

Analytics Reveal a Wide Range of Potential Outcomes

Evan Miyakawa recently published his preseason ceiling and floor projections. His model ran 10,000 simulations for the upcoming season. He then identified the best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios for each team.

For South Carolina, the ceiling is a regular season finish as the 47th-best team nationally. The floor, however, is a dismal 209th ranking. The median, or most probable, outcome places the Gamecocks at 104th. These figures are the lowest in the highly-ranked SEC conference.

A Glimmer of Hope for Gamecock Fans

The No. 47 ceiling is a significant number. It typically corresponds with an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. The lowest-ranked at-large team last season was Utah State at No. 65.

This indicates Miyakawa’s data sees a realistic, if narrow, path for South Carolina to exceed expectations. A finish near their median projection of 104th would keep them out of contention. But their best-case scenario is firmly on the tournament bubble. Conversely, hitting their floor would mean a historically poor season, worse than recent struggling SEC teams.

The regular season begins soon for the Gamecocks. They host North Carolina A&T at Colonial Life Arena on November 4th.

The upcoming season presents a critical test for South Carolina basketball. The team’s performance will determine if they can defy the low expectations and climb the SEC standings.

Info at your fingertips

What is South Carolina’s preseason ranking?

Analyst Evan Miyakawa ranks the Gamecocks 94th overall nationally. This places them last in the SEC according to his metrics. Their offensive rating is projected at 113th.

Can South Carolina make the NCAA Tournament?

Their ceiling projection of 47th suggests it is a remote possibility. That ranking is typically good enough for an at-large bid. However, their median outcome is well outside tournament range.

How does their defense project for the season?

Miyakawa’s model projects the Gamecocks’ defense at 86th in the country. This is stronger than their offensive projection. It indicates defense will be key to any success they have.

When does the South Carolina basketball season start?

The Gamecocks tip off their regular season on Tuesday, November 4th. They will face North Carolina A&T at home. The game will be streamed on SEC Network+.

Why were the Gamecocks picked to finish last?

The prediction stems from a season where they won just two SEC games. The team is undergoing a rebuild. This has led to low external expectations from media and coaches.