The OECD’s June 2026 Economic Outlook projects US inflation at 4.2 percent — the highest in the G7 — and GDP growth slowing to 2 percent, driven by the energy shock from the Iran conflict and ongoing tariff effects.
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Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting as energy-driven inflation keeps policymakers in a wait-and-see mode.