Taiwan’s presidential election risks war, ex-Beijing official says as mainland steps up pressure over island

INTERNATIONAL DESK: Cross-strait tensions run the risk of escalating into an armed conflict if the front running candidate from Taiwan’s ruling independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party wins the island’s presidential elections next month, a former mainland government official has warned.

The unusually harsh warnings by Wang Zaixi, former deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office, came as Beijing stepped up military and political pressure on the self-ruling island ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13.

“There is a great deal of uncertainty in Taiwan’s elections, but one thing is certain: Taiwan independence means war, and insisting on Taiwan independence will lead to war sooner or later,” Wang, a retired major general, said at an event in Beijing on Saturday.

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In keeping with Beijing’s official line, Wang, who is vice-president of the National Society of Taiwan Studies in Beijing, described William Lai Ching-te, current vice-president and the DPP’s presidential nominee who leads in the polls, as “a stubborn, radical Taiwan independence activist”.

“If he comes to power, the possibility of a cross-strait military conflict cannot be ruled out, and we need to be fully aware of this,” Wang told the event hosted by the state-controlled newspaper Global Times.

Beijing has long described Lai as a dangerous “separatist” and “troublemaker” and portrayed the elections in January as a choice between war and peace.

While Lai often characterised Beijing as an “aggressor” and said on Sunday that Taiwan was key to the world’s prosperity and security, the other two presidential candidates – Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of Taiwan People’s Party – have called for closer ties with Beijing.

According to the Global Times, Wang lay the blame for the heightened cross-strait tensions on Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s alleged “secessionist movement” and lashed out at Washington for provoking a proxy war similar to the Ukraine crisis to contain mainland China.

Describing the Taiwan question as “a variable” affecting the mainland’s national security, he said that under Tsai the island’s active cooperation with the US worsened the already tense situation “to the danger of military tension”.

“For the long term, we generally have preparations in place to contain and destroy the secessionist attempt of Taiwan independence but uncertainty still exists, so we have to be prepared to prevent this risk,” Wang said.

Wang also sought to defend Beijing’s perceived intimidation tactics against the island, insisting mainland China had “exercised great patience and adhered to the basic policy of peaceful reunification”.

But the island’s defence ministry claimed mainland China had increased incursions near Taiwan, which Beijing sees as its own territory that must be reunited by force if necessary. It reported on Sunday that eight mainland Chinese fighter jets had crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait in the 24 hours before.

Over the past week, Beijing has suspended tariff cuts on 12 chemical imports from Taiwan starting next week, citing Taipei’s violations of a free-trade agreement that took effect in 2010.

Last week, in the first US-China military dialogue in more than a year, General Liu Zhenli of the People’s Liberation Army issued a warning against the US interference on Taiwan, vowing the PLA would resolutely defend state sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“Be prudent in words and actions, and take concrete actions to safeguard regional peace and stability and the overall situation of China-US relations,” Liu, a top contender to become Beijing’s next defence minister, told US Air Force General Charles Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

US President Joe Biden on Friday signed a defence policy bill that includes measures to help strengthen Taiwan’s defence capabilities and support it taking part in international organisations.

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This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading news media reporting on China and Asia. (SCMP)