Tropical Storm Jerry Track: Forecast to Become a Hurricane on Thursday

Tropical Storm Jerry is strengthening in the Atlantic and is now forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, October 9, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of early Wednesday morning, the storm is positioned about 890 miles east-southwest of the Northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches have already been issued.

The system is moving west-northwest at about 23 mph, with forecasters expecting a gradual slowdown in forward speed over the next couple of days. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is projected by Friday. On its current track, Jerry’s core could pass near or just north of the Northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday.

Tropical Storm Jerry Strengthens in the Atlantic

As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Jerry is sustaining maximum winds of around 50 mph with higher gusts, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure is estimated at 1003 mb. Meteorologists say the storm is expected to intensify steadily, reaching hurricane strength within the next 24 hours.

The National Hurricane Center warns that heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding could affect parts of the Northern Leeward Islands as Jerry approaches. Coastal regions could also experience dangerous surf and rip currents as the storm strengthens and moves closer. While the current official forecast keeps Jerry away from the U.S. mainland, some forecast models show the potential for a slower or delayed turn north, which could bring large swells to the East Coast if the system tracks farther west of Bermuda.

Other Tropical Activity: Southwestern Gulf System

Alongside Jerry, the NHC is also watching a trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with only a 10% chance of development over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to move inland over southern Mexico by early Thursday, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds regardless of further development.

October is often an active period in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Meteorologists note that the Central American Gyre — a recurring low-pressure pattern over Central America — can pull in moisture from the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific, creating conditions favorable for late-season storms.

Tropical Storm Jerry continues to be closely monitored as it edges closer to hurricane strength. Residents in the Northern Leeward Islands should stay alert for updates as watches remain in effect and conditions could worsen quickly if the storm intensifies further.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: Where is Tropical Storm Jerry currently located?

As of Wednesday morning, Jerry is about 890 miles east-southwest of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Q2: When will Jerry become a hurricane?

Forecasters expect Jerry to strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday, October 9, 2025.

Q3: Will Tropical Storm Jerry affect the U.S.?

The current forecast keeps Jerry away from the mainland U.S., but large swells and rip currents could reach the coast if its track shifts west.

Q4: What warnings are in place right now?

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for parts of the Northern Leeward Islands, where heavy rain and flooding are possible.

Q5: What other systems are being tracked?

A low-pressure system in the Bay of Campeche has a low chance of development but could bring rain and wind to southern Mexico.