Tua Tagovailoa Faces Cold-Weather Test in Below-Freezing Pittsburgh

Tua Tagovailoa will try to win his first below-freezing NFL game on Monday, December 15, when the Miami Dolphins visit the Pittsburgh Steelers. Forecasts call for temperatures near 18 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff, with strong wind gusts.

The game closes Week 15 and comes during a late-season push for Miami, which has won five of its last six games. For Tagovailoa, the matchup also reopens a long-running discussion about his performance in cold-weather conditions.

Tua Tagovailoa and His Cold-Weather Record

Tua Tagovailoa has never won an NFL game played at 40 degrees Fahrenheit or colder. Entering Monday night, he is 0–5 in such games, all of which came on the road against cold-weather teams.

Those losses occurred in Buffalo twice, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Green Bay. When expanding the temperature range, the trend remains similar. Tagovailoa is 1–6 in games played at 45 degrees or colder and 2–8 when temperatures are 50 degrees or below.

According to reports from the Palm Beach Post and NFL Network, these numbers have followed Tagovailoa throughout his career and often resurface late in the season. The Steelers matchup is expected to be the coldest game of his NFL career to date.

Tagovailoa has dismissed the weather narrative publicly. Speaking to the South Florida Sun Sentinel last week, he said conditions do not change the objective. He emphasized that the Dolphins are focused on execution regardless of temperature.

Miami coach Mike McDaniel has adjusted his offensive approach during the team’s recent surge. Over the last four games, Tagovailoa has thrown for fewer than 175 yards each week, all Dolphins wins.

During that span, Miami has leaned heavily on the ground game. The Dolphins lead the NFL over that stretch with more than 190 rushing yards per game and a league-high average in rushing first downs.

That formula is expected to continue Monday night. Cold temperatures and wind typically reduce passing volume, and Pittsburgh’s defense ranks among the league’s strongest against the pass.

Why the Pittsburgh Game Still Matters for Miami

Miami’s playoff chances entering Week 15 remain slim. Advanced projections give the Dolphins less than a one percent chance of reaching the postseason.

Even so, the game carries weight for the organization. A win in these conditions would mark Tagovailoa’s first true cold-weather victory and remove one of the most persistent narratives surrounding his career.

Last week offered a partial breakthrough. Miami defeated the New York Jets with kickoff temperatures around 41 degrees, giving Tagovailoa his first win in conditions below the mid-40s.

The Steelers game represents a far more extreme test. Pittsburgh is known for late-season home-field advantage tied directly to weather and physical style of play.

McDaniel has stated that winning remains the only priority. Tagovailoa echoed that sentiment, noting that passing volume is secondary if the current approach continues to produce results.

Tua Tagovailoa enters Monday night focused on outcomes, not conditions. A win in Pittsburgh would not change the standings much, but it would change the conversation around his ability to lead Miami anywhere, anytime.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: Has Tua Tagovailoa ever won a game below freezing?

No. He is 0–5 in games played at or below 40 degrees Fahrenheit entering Week 15.

Q2: How cold is it expected to be in Pittsburgh?

Forecasts project temperatures around 18 degrees with wind gusts near 16 mph at kickoff.

Q3: How have the Dolphins won recently?

Miami has relied heavily on its rushing attack, averaging more than 190 rushing yards per game over its recent winning streak.

Q4: Does this game affect the playoff picture?

Miami’s playoff chances are very slim, but the game remains important for long-term evaluation.

Q5: Why is this game significant for Tagovailoa?

A win would be his first in true cold-weather conditions and could quiet long-standing criticism.