U.S. COVID-19 Cases Rise as Booster Access Shrinks: What It Means for Vaccinations in 2025

As summer 2025 unfolds, COVID-19 cases are rising once again in the United States. Schools are reopening, travel is up, and newer variants are circulating. But this year’s surge comes with a twist: federal health officials are moving to restrict access to COVID-19 booster vaccines. This shift in policy has alarmed public health experts, especially as overall immunity from prior vaccinations and infections continues to wane.

Vaccinations, which have played a central role in reducing hospitalizations and deaths throughout the pandemic, may now become harder to obtain for millions. The Trump administration’s recent approach prioritizes older adults and those with chronic health conditions, cutting off broader segments of the population from boosters—just as the virus is gaining strength again.

How Vaccination Limits Could Fuel the Next COVID Wave

The FDA recently approved updated COVID-19 booster shots only for adults over 65 or individuals with pre-existing health conditions such as asthma, diabetes, and even depression. These new limitations reverse earlier strategies that aimed to provide wide public coverage.

Health experts say the new policies could hinder efforts to curb transmission. Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University, noted that broad vaccination not only protects individuals but also reduces the virus’s ability to spread throughout communities. Without updated boosters, the overall level of protection in the population is dropping.

Wastewater data, rising test positivity rates, and emergency room visits are all pointing to a new wave of COVID infections. While current case increases are slower than past surges, it’s still too early to predict how widespread this summer’s outbreak could become. Historical patterns show COVID tends to spike twice a year, but as with other respiratory viruses, its behavior is shifting.

Why Fewer People Are Getting Boosted in 2025

Only 23% of U.S. adults had received an updated booster as of April 2025. Among children, the numbers are even lower: around 5.6% of kids aged six months to four years and about 15% of those aged five to 17 have received any form of COVID vaccination.

Several factors are contributing to this decline. Alongside the tighter federal guidelines, many pediatricians are receiving mixed messages on recommending vaccines, and some medical organizations have even been removed from federal advisory committees. For pregnant people, vaccination recommendations have been softened or removed entirely—despite strong data showing that vaccines help prevent severe illness during pregnancy.

Health professionals are also concerned about access. If boosters are not formally approved for a wider population, questions remain: Can people still pay out of pocket to get one? Will there be enough supply? And what are the legal and ethical implications of prescribing off-label?

COVID Variants and the Risk of Severe Illness Without Boosters

The dominant variants currently spreading have shown some ability to evade immunity from earlier vaccinations or infections. That makes boosters especially important, particularly for people with waning immunity or those who have never been infected.

According to public health experts, the vaccines still offer valuable protection, especially against severe outcomes. Even limited protection from boosters can significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization or death. But as booster uptake declines, so does community protection.

Children remain vulnerable. Though severe illness is less common among kids, hospitalization rates for children in 2025 are comparable to previous years. And long COVID—persistent symptoms lasting weeks or months after infection—remains a concern. An estimated 5.3% of U.S. adults reported experiencing long COVID symptoms as of late 2024, with the number likely underreported due to data gaps.

Are There Alternatives to Vaccination?

While vaccination remains the most effective tool against COVID-19, antiviral medications like Paxlovid continue to offer another line of defense. These drugs reduce the risk of hospitalization and death, especially for those who are unvaccinated or at higher risk.

Fortunately, antiviral access has not yet been subject to the same restrictions as boosters. But a federal program to make Paxlovid more affordable is expected to end in December 2025, raising concerns about future availability.

What Americans Should Do Now

As the situation evolves, public health experts recommend a few key actions:

• Check eligibility: If you’re over 65 or have a chronic health condition, get your updated booster as soon as it’s available.

• Talk to your doctor: Some providers may offer off-label booster access.

• Protect yourself: Use masks in crowded indoor spaces, improve air quality with purifiers, and stay home when feeling unwell.

• Stay informed: Monitor local health data and follow updates from trusted sources.

Vaccinations remain one of the most effective tools we have to manage COVID-19’s impact. While federal policies may be changing, the individual and community benefits of staying up to date on boosters are clear. As new variants emerge and immunity fades, access to vaccines could mean the difference between mild symptoms and a hospital visit. It’s more important than ever to stay informed, advocate for vaccine access, and take steps to protect yourself and your community.

You Must Know: FAQs About Vaccinations and Booster Access

Q: Who is eligible for COVID-19 boosters in 2025?
A: Only adults over 65 or those with certain health conditions are officially eligible under new FDA guidelines. Others may access boosters off-label if prescribed by a doctor.

Q: Are COVID-19 cases increasing again?
A: Yes. Cases are rising in at least 26 states, especially in the South and Midwest, according to CDC data. Emergency room visits and test positivity rates are also up.

Q: Can I still get vaccinated if I’m not eligible under the new rules?
A: Possibly. Some doctors may prescribe the vaccine off-label, though cost and availability could vary.

Q: Is it worth getting a booster if I’ve had COVID before?
A: Yes. Vaccines provide additional protection even if you’ve been previously infected, particularly against severe illness and hospitalization.

Q: Are antivirals like Paxlovid still effective?
A: Yes. Paxlovid remains effective against current variants and is widely recommended for people at high risk of severe disease.

Q: How can I protect myself and my family during this wave?
A: Stay updated on boosters, wear masks in indoor settings, ensure good air quality, and avoid contact with sick individuals.