Vikings vs Steelers Prediction: Picks, Best Bets & Analysis for NFL Week 4

The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers face off in Week 4 at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland. Both teams enter at 2-1, but the Vikings appear better prepared for this international showdown. Our Vikings Steelers prediction leans on Minnesota’s stronger defense and balanced offense.

This matchup matters because it’s the Steelers’ first real test after a soft early schedule. Minnesota has proven itself with elite defensive metrics and efficient quarterback play. Bettors and fans expect a competitive game, but the numbers give the Vikings an edge.

Vikings Steelers Prediction and Key Betting Insights

Minnesota’s defense ranks among the best in the NFL through three weeks. The Vikings lead the league in EPA per play allowed, sit second in defensive DVOA, and are top-10 in Pro Football Focus defense grade. This unit has consistently limited explosive plays and created pressure without sacrificing coverage.

Quarterback Carson Wentz has been efficient for Minnesota. Against Cincinnati in Week 3, he averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, completed 14 of 20 passes, and finished top-10 in adjusted EPA per play. The Vikings’ offense isn’t flashy but executes well under pressure.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has not impressed offensively. The Steelers rank 17th in EPA per play, 21st in DVOA, and 30th in PFF offense grade. Their two early wins came against one of the NFL’s easiest schedules, according to Pro Football Focus. Now they face a significant jump in competition.

Oddsmakers list the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites (-114). This is below the key number of three, which adds value for Minnesota bettors. The total sits at 40.5, suggesting expectations for a lower-scoring matchup.

Key player props also stand out. Vikings running back Jordan Mason rushed for 116 yards and scored twice last week. His usage should stay high against a Steelers defense that can be vulnerable on the ground. Star receiver Justin Jefferson hasn’t scored since Week 1 but remains a strong bet to reach the end zone. Pittsburgh has allowed a 75.5% catch rate and the 12th-highest yards per target to wide receivers this season.

Analysis and Betting Strategy

Backing the Vikings -2.5 appears to be the sharp play. Minnesota has the superior defense and a more efficient passing game. Wentz doesn’t need to be a hero; he just needs to stay efficient and avoid turnovers.

The under 40.5 total is also appealing. The Steelers’ defense remains disciplined — it ranked top-10 last year in DVOA and EPA allowed — and can keep this game from turning into a shootout. Minnesota’s defense should control Pittsburgh’s inconsistent offense, keeping points limited.

Same-game parlays featuring Vikings -2.5, under 40.5, Jordan Mason anytime touchdown, and Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown combine value with matchup-driven logic. Bettors looking for a simple approach can stick to the spread and total.

Our Vikings Steelers prediction: Minnesota covers the 2.5-point spread and the game trends under 40.5. Expect a defensive battle with key plays from Justin Jefferson and Jordan Mason.

FYI (keeping you in the loop)-

Q1: Who is favored in the Vikings vs Steelers Week 4 game?

The Minnesota Vikings are favored by 2.5 points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Q2: What is the over/under for Vikings vs Steelers?

The total is set at 40.5 points, indicating expectations for a low-scoring game.

Q3: Which Vikings players could score in Week 4?

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Mason are top candidates to score against Pittsburgh’s defense.

Q4: How has the Steelers’ offense performed so far?

The Steelers rank near the bottom in efficiency, sitting 21st in DVOA and 30th in PFF offense grade.

Q5: Where is the Vikings vs Steelers game being played?

The game will be played at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland, on Sunday morning Eastern Time.