Xbox Sales Disappoint: Series S/X Install Base Stalls Below 30 Million, Trails PS5 Significantly

The Xbox Series generation faces an uphill battle, with sales figures falling far short of expectations and significantly lagging behind its main rival. According to estimates derived from confidential AMD data by renowned industry leaker KeplerL2, the combined sales of the Xbox Series S and Series X consoles have yet to reach the 30 million unit milestone. This revelation, shared via posts on the NeoGaf board and subsequently discussed on Reddit, paints a stark picture of Microsoft’s current console market position. KeplerL2’s analysis suggests Sony’s PlayStation 5 boasts an install base roughly three times larger, highlighting a substantial gap in market adoption. Despite strategic moves like the lower-cost Series S, Xbox sales momentum appears persistently sluggish, underscored by a recent 22% year-over-year decline in hardware revenue reported by Microsoft.

How Do Xbox Series Sales Compare to PlayStation 5?

KeplerL2’s estimates hinge on AMD’s reported sales figures for its Semi-Custom Business Unit (SCBU), which supplies chips for major consoles. By analyzing AMD’s data alongside Sony’s publicly confirmed PS5 shipments (which surpassed 59.3 million units as of March 31, 2024, per Sony’s FY2023 report) and accounting for Steam Deck shipments (estimated around 4 million), the leaker deduced the Xbox Series S/X figures. Crucially, AMD’s reported chip sales include units still in the manufacturing pipeline, meaning the actual consoles sold to consumers could be slightly lower.

• Minimum Estimate: KeplerL2 calculates a baseline of approximately 21 million Xbox Series S/X units sold based on specific AMD data points.
• Maximum Estimate: Factoring in subsequent quarters, the upper limit is placed just below 29 million, hence the “below 30 million” conclusion.
• The PS5 Lead: With Sony confirming over 59 million PS5s shipped, the PlayStation advantage is substantial, potentially nearing a 3:1 ratio over Xbox Series consoles. This gap poses significant challenges for Microsoft in attracting third-party exclusives and maintaining platform momentum.

Financial Fallout for Microsoft’s Gaming Division

The sales struggle directly impacts Microsoft’s bottom line. The company’s recent quarterly reports consistently highlight declining Xbox hardware revenue, with the last quarter showing a sharp 22% year-over-year drop. This trend persists even as Microsoft integrates major acquisitions like Activision Blizzard. The strategy behind the affordable Series S, aimed at broadening the market, has demonstrably failed to close the gap with Sony or reverse the sales trajectory significantly.

However, there is a sliver of positive financial news buried within KeplerL2’s leak regarding Xbox sales profitability. While Sony’s standard PlayStation 5 is reportedly still sold at a “minor loss” (with only the new PS5 Pro turning a profit, according to the leaker), Microsoft has apparently managed to steer its Xbox consoles into the black:

• Cost Reductions: KeplerL2 states Microsoft executed a die shrink (manufacturing process refinement) for the Series X chip and raised console prices.
• Profitability Achieved: These actions, the leaker claims, mean the Xbox Series X, and likely the Series S by extension, are “profitable now.” This contrasts with earlier generations where consoles were often sold at a loss initially, recouped through game and service sales.

Must Know

How reliable are these Xbox sales estimates?
KeplerL2 has a credible track record with AMD-related leaks. The methodology uses AMD’s official SCBU sales data, cross-referenced with Sony’s confirmed PS5 shipments and Steam Deck estimates. While not official Microsoft figures (which haven’t been released since 2014), the approach provides a strong industry benchmark. (Source: KeplerL2 via NeoGaf/Reddit, Sony FY2023 Report).

Why are Xbox Series sales lagging behind PS5?
Factors include Sony’s stronger exclusive game lineup historically, deeper brand loyalty in key markets, potential consumer confusion over the Series S/X strategy, and Microsoft’s increased focus on multi-platform and Game Pass, potentially reducing the imperative to own an Xbox console solely. The significant sales gap also creates a self-reinforcing cycle where developers prioritize the larger PS5 install base.

Is the Xbox Series S partly to blame for low sales?
While designed to be more accessible, the lower-powered Series S may have fragmented the Xbox market and potentially limited next-gen game development ambitions due to its technical constraints. However, its failure to significantly boost overall unit sales suggests broader market challenges beyond just the hardware model choice.

Are Xbox consoles profitable now?
According to KeplerL2’s information, yes. Microsoft’s die shrink for the Series X chip and price increases have moved both the Series S and X into profitability. In contrast, Sony reportedly still sells the standard PS5 at a minor loss, relying on the PS5 Pro and other revenue streams. (Source: KeplerL2 via NeoGaf/Reddit).

What does this mean for the future of Xbox hardware?
Persistently low hardware sales raise questions about Microsoft’s long-term commitment to traditional console generations. The company’s aggressive push for Game Pass on PC, cloud streaming, and multi-platform game releases suggests a future where the Xbox brand evolves beyond being solely tied to its own console hardware, focusing instead on ecosystem access.

The Xbox Series S and X consoles remain crucial pillars of Microsoft’s gaming ecosystem, but the estimated sales figures below 30 million units, dwarfed by the PS5’s install base, signal a profound shift in the console landscape. While achieving hardware profitability is a positive step, reversing the Xbox sales trend requires more than cost-cutting. Microsoft must leverage its content strength from acquisitions like Activision Blizzard and compelling Game Pass offerings to reignite consumer interest in its dedicated hardware or risk its consoles becoming a secondary platform within its own broader gaming strategy. The pressure is on to prove the value proposition of owning an Xbox. Explore the evolving Xbox strategy and its impact on the games you play.