Bitcoin held near $61,000 on Sunday ahead of two events that traders said could determine its near-term trajectory — the Federal Reserve‘s rate decision scheduled for Wednesday and the expected signing of the Iran-US Islamabad Declaration, which would reopen oil markets and ease global economic pressure.

The cryptocurrency had traded as high as $78,000 in February before the Iran war began and its associated supply shocks drove a broad risk-off move across financial markets. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 briefly in early June, its lowest level since before the conflict, before recovering slightly. The 14-day relative strength index showed the asset in oversold territory, suggesting some potential for a technical rebound.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States recorded a combined $1.42 billion in outflows last week, the third-worst weekly figure in the funds’ short history. Ethereum ETFs also lost more than $240 million over the same period. Total crypto market capitalisation fell to around $2.18 trillion, roughly half its 2025 peak of $4.2 trillion, reflecting both the macro environment and a rotation of institutional capital toward AI-related investments.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting, with markets pricing in a near-certainty of no change. Fed officials have cited persistent inflation, partly driven by the energy price shock from the Iran war, as the reason for caution. A more aggressive hold signal, or any language about delayed rate cuts, could weigh further on risk assets including Bitcoin.

The potential Iran deal signing is a double-edged signal for crypto markets. On one hand, a ceasefire and Hormuz reopening could ease inflation and eventually open the door to Fed rate cuts, which historically have benefited Bitcoin. On the other, risk-on moves in traditional markets sometimes cause crypto positions to be liquidated as traders rotate capital elsewhere.

Japan’s parliament recently passed a bill cutting the crypto tax rate to 20 percent, signaling a friendlier regulatory environment in one of the world’s largest crypto markets. BlackRock is also preparing a Bitcoin income ETF with a fee structure designed to undercut rivals. Those developments have provided some floor for sentiment even as macro headwinds persist.

Analysts said the coming week was unusually event-dense for a market as sensitive to macro signals as Bitcoin. A peace deal, a Fed meeting, and the beginning of Hormuz demining operations would all carry implications. Some traders said they expected volatility to remain elevated regardless of direction. Japan’s crypto legislation has been one of the few positive structural signals in recent weeks. BlackRock’s new ETF could attract fresh institutional inflows once macro uncertainty eases. The longer-term picture for Bitcoin remains contested, with bulls pointing to institutional adoption and bears citing the broader global stock market pressure as a persistent headwind.