Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday as cryptocurrency markets entered a cautious holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve‘s June meeting, which began on June 16 and will conclude with a rate decision and press conference on Wednesday afternoon. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has recovered from a sharp drop below $60,000 in early June, driven in part by optimism surrounding the Iran-US peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent when the two-day session closes Wednesday. But the market’s real focus is on the dot plot — the Fed’s quarterly projection of future rate movements — and on what Chair Jerome Powell signals about whether cuts planned for later in 2026 remain on the table given persistent inflation running at 4.2 percent.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $2.75 billion in outflows between mid-May and early June, their longest sustained withdrawal streak since the products launched in January 2024. Institutional demand has shown signs of returning over the past week as the Iran deal reduced geopolitical pressure on global markets, but the flow picture remains fragile heading into Wednesday’s policy statement.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, made headlines when it sold a small quantity of Bitcoin earlier this month — the first sale in years from a company that had built its entire corporate identity around accumulating and holding the cryptocurrency. The move spooked some retail investors and contributed to the early June price drop, though Saylor described it as routine financial management rather than a change in strategy.

If the Fed delivers a hold without shifting its guidance more hawkish, Bitcoin and broader risk assets are likely to treat the outcome as a neutral to modestly positive signal. If Powell hints that the rate-cutting path is narrower than previously indicated, markets could see renewed pressure. The pattern of crypto responding sharply to Fed communications has held consistently through 2025 and 2026.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, was trading near $3,200 on Tuesday, also range-bound ahead of the Fed announcement. Smaller tokens across the market showed modest gains on the day as the Iran peace deal improved overall risk appetite in global financial markets.

Analysts at several crypto research firms have noted that Bitcoin’s recovery from its June lows has been faster than previous corrections of similar magnitude, suggesting underlying demand remains relatively firm. The next significant test beyond the Fed will be the formal signing of the Iran-US peace agreement in Geneva on June 19, which is expected to push oil prices lower and give inflation hawks less ammunition. For current market data, CoinGecko tracks live Bitcoin and crypto prices across major exchanges.