Bitcoin and the broader crypto market were watching the Federal Reserve closely on Wednesday as new chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first rate decision, with the updated dot plot showing the committee now expects no additional interest rate cuts in 2026.

Bitcoin was trading near $64,000 ahead of the FOMC announcement and moved within a tight range as the statement was released. The asset has maintained strong footing in recent weeks, supported by continued institutional buying through spot ETFs and by growing optimism around regulatory clarity in the United States under the current administration.

The hawkish lean in Warsh’s press conference — where he emphasised that inflation remains a concern and that the committee sees no urgency to ease — initially put mild downward pressure on risk assets, including crypto. But Bitcoin held its level as traders assessed the broader context: rates staying higher for longer can constrain liquidity, but the environment of institutional adoption and ETF inflows has partially decoupled crypto from the pure interest-rate sensitivity it showed in 2022 and 2023.

Crypto analysts noted that the removal of the expected 2026 rate cut from the dot plot was a slight negative for risk assets broadly but not a significant shock given that markets had already partially priced in a Warsh-led Fed being more restrictive than his predecessor.

Bitcoin ETFs continued to see net positive inflows in June. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has accumulated over $50 billion in assets under management since its launch in January 2024, and weekly inflow data shows sustained demand from institutional allocators treating Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier rather than a speculative trade.

The next key event for crypto markets is the July FOMC meeting. A softer-than-expected CPI print before then could revive expectations for easing and provide a tailwind for Bitcoin. But Warsh’s first press conference suggests the bar for that is higher than markets had previously assumed.

Ethereum was also steady near $3,400, while XRP saw unusual strength related to its own ETF inflow story rather than the Fed backdrop. Solana held above $150, with decentralised finance activity remaining robust on the network.

Total crypto market capitalisation held near $2.3 trillion on Wednesday, broadly unchanged from Tuesday’s close despite the rate decision noise.