Nepal Elections Show Strong Lead for Rastriya Swatantra Party as Vote Counting Continues

Vote counting from Nepal’s general election held on 5 March is pointing to a decisive lead for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the political party led by rapper and former Kathmandu mayor Balendra Shah. Early results released by the Election Commission suggest the party is on track for an overwhelming presence in parliament, a rare outcome in a country where coalition governments have long been the norm.

As of Monday evening local time, the RSP had secured 125 of the 165 parliamentary seats decided through the first-past-the-post system. Only one constituency remained without a declared result.

Calculations by BBC Nepali, based on the commission’s latest data and the formula used to distribute proportional representation seats, indicate the party could also win at least 58 of the 110 seats allocated under that system.

If those projections hold, the RSP would come within a single seat of a two-thirds majority in the 275-member parliament. Such a result would mark the first time in decades that a single party approaches that level of control in Nepal’s legislature.

Balendra Shah has been named the party’s candidate for prime minister. He has already defeated former prime minister KP Sharma Oli in his own parliamentary constituency, a result that places him firmly in line to lead the next government if the party’s overall numbers remain strong once counting concludes.

Should he ultimately assume office, Shah would become the youngest prime minister in Nepal’s history.

Election officials say the remaining vote counting should be completed by Tuesday evening local time. Even after counting ends, the Election Commission will require at least four more days to formally confirm and publish the final results.

The speed of the current count stands in sharp contrast to the last general election in 2022, when it took nearly two weeks for results to be finalized. Nepal’s geography has often slowed the process.

More than 80 percent of the country is mountainous, making the transport of ballot boxes from remote polling stations a logistical challenge. In some places, ballot boxes must be carried down steep terrain by hand, while others require helicopters or small aircraft.

Flights are restricted after dark in several remote regions, which often delays collection until the following morning. Weather conditions, particularly snowfall or heavy rain, can also interrupt the process.

Election preparations in isolated communities can be particularly demanding. In one village in Mustang district, where just four residents were registered to vote, 20 officials were sent to deliver election materials, oversee voting and maintain security on polling day.

Another 35 eligible voters from the same village live elsewhere in Nepal, but heavy snowfall prevented them from returning to cast ballots. Nepal’s election law requires citizens to vote in the constituency where they are registered, which is usually where they were born.

Nearly 19 million people were registered to vote in the election, including close to one million first-time voters. The Election Commission reported that about 60 percent of registered voters took part.

The election determines the makeup of Nepal’s 275-member parliament. A total of 165 members are elected directly through the first-past-the-post system, while the remaining 110 seats are distributed proportionally based on the share of votes each party receives nationwide.

This dual system has historically made it difficult for a single party to win an outright majority, often leading to coalition governments.

Across the country, 6,541 candidates contested the election. Of these, 3,406 stood in directly elected constituencies, including more than 1,000 candidates under the age of 40. Another 3,135 candidates competed under the proportional representation system.

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Voting opened at 07:00 local time and continued until 17:00. With most results now declared and the final tallies still being processed, the overall picture emerging from this election suggests a significant shift in Nepal’s political landscape.