New projections released this week put the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment somewhere between 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent, as cooling inflation pulls early estimates down from where they stood a few months ago.

The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group that tracks COLA projections closely, put its estimate at 3.6 percent. Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson came in lower, at 3.4 percent, while AARP’s analysis of current inflation data pointed to 3.5 percent.

The differences matter less than the direction. CNBC reported that COLA estimates for 2027 have been falling as inflation moderates, a shift from the more elevated projections analysts were floating earlier in the year.

If the Senior Citizens League’s 3.6 percent projection held through the fall, the average Social Security benefit would rise by $69.75, moving from $1,937.53 to roughly $2,007.28 a month. That estimate is not final and could still move before the government’s official announcement.

The Social Security Administration will not confirm the actual 2027 COLA until mid-October, once it has averaged CPI-W inflation readings from July, August and September. Two of those three months of data were still outstanding as of this week, meaning the current range remains a forecast rather than a locked-in number.

For the roughly 70 million Americans who receive Social Security benefits, even a percentage point of difference in the final COLA translates into real money over a year. Retirees and advocacy groups will be watching the next two months of inflation data closely as the October announcement approaches.

Advocacy groups have argued for years that the formula behind the COLA, which tracks a working-age inflation index rather than the costs older Americans actually face, understates how much prices rise for seniors. That argument tends to resurface each year once the Social Security Administration issues its final number in October.

The 2027 figure would follow a more modest 2026 COLA of 2.8 percent, which the Social Security Administration announced on October 24 and which lifted the average retired worker’s benefit by about $56, to $2,071 a month.