With the United States and Iran moving toward a formal nuclear deal to be signed in Geneva on June 19, President Donald Trump has shifted his public attention back to trade disputes, moving on from weeks of military posturing to renew pressure on European and Asian trading partners through tariff threats.
The pivot was evident at the G7 summit in Evian this week, where Trump raised the possibility of 100 percent tariffs on French wine in response to a French digital services tax that he has described as discriminatory toward American technology companies. The threat echoed earlier episodes from Trump’s first term and unsettled European delegates who had hoped the summit would produce a calmer atmosphere on trade.
Administration officials separately indicated that the White House is reviewing a broader set of tariff measures targeting pharmaceutical imports, semiconductors from non-allied countries, and agricultural goods from nations the administration considers to be running unfair trade surpluses with the United States.
The Iran situation has given Trump a significant foreign policy accomplishment to point to. The deal, which limits Iranian nuclear enrichment in exchange for phased sanctions relief, has drawn criticism from some Republican hawks but broader support from the American public, which polls show is broadly opposed to military engagement in the Middle East. With that chapter largely closing, the administration appears to be returning to economic nationalism as the defining issue of its second-term agenda.
The Federal Reserve’s decision this week to hold interest rates steady with no projected 2026 cuts adds a layer of complexity to the trade picture. Higher borrowing costs combined with new import tariffs could squeeze both consumers and manufacturers, a tension that economists have flagged as a risk to growth in the second half of the year.
China has largely stayed out of the current G7 trade discussion but is watching the tariff signals closely. Beijing is set to respond to any new broad tariff measures with countermeasures of its own, a dynamic that traders in commodities and currency markets are pricing in.
Trump is expected to attend the Geneva signing ceremony for the Iran deal, which would make it the highest-profile diplomatic event of his second term. Advisers say the trip would be brief, and the president would return to domestic and trade policy immediately after.
