Croatia and Panama meet at BMO Field in Toronto on Saturday evening in a World Cup 2026 Group L match that both sides must win to have any realistic chance of reaching the knockout stage. Neither team took points from their opening fixture, and the equation is simple: win here or leave the tournament at the final whistle.

England beat Croatia 4-2 in Arlington on June 17, a result that exposed defensive vulnerabilities in a way that will have concerned coach Zlatko Dalic. Panama lost 1-0 to Ghana in a match where the Central American side created little despite controlling possession in the second half.

Croatia arrive as the more experienced side. Luka Modric, 40, is playing in what he has described as his final World Cup, and the tournament has shown that his ability to dictate tempo from central midfield remains intact. The question is whether Croatia’s legs will hold across three group matches, given the three-year generational gap between their established core and the younger players filling out the squad.

Andrej Kramaric leads the attack. He scored against England in the 4-2 defeat — the only Croatian goal of that match — and his movement in behind the defence remains Croatia’s clearest route to goal. If Panama sit deep and defend compactly, as they did against Ghana, Kramaric will need to find solutions in tight spaces with limited service from midfield.

Panama’s best hope is a quick counter-attacking game. Rolando Blackburn, who came close against Ghana, offers genuine pace on the break that Croatia’s centre-backs have not consistently dealt with in this cycle. A single goal on the counter would put Panama in a position to defend for the draw they need to keep their campaign alive going into the third matchday.

A draw helps neither side substantially. Ghana’s opening win and England’s 4-2 result mean both of the group’s top sides sit on three points and are well placed for progression. For Croatia and Panama, the only useful outcome is three points.

Modric’s presence gives Croatia a psychological edge in tight games under pressure. The tactical intelligence he brings — knowing when to slow the game down and when to accelerate — tends to show up in exactly these kinds of must-win fixtures. But Panama have pace and motivation, and nothing about this group stage suggests either side can afford a passive first half.