El Niño is strengthening across the tropical Pacific, and the full El Niño Southern Oscillation assessment from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. The assessment appears in the Climate Prediction Center’s Aug. 13 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the latest monthly discussion listed on the centre’s page.
The CPC said sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded 2.0 degrees Celsius during the latest observation period. July index values were listed as 1.4 degrees Celsius in Niño-3.4, 1.7 degrees in Niño-3 and 2.9 degrees in Niño-1+2. The centre also reported a rise in the equatorial subsurface temperature index during July.
Atmospheric indicators were moving in the same direction. NOAA said low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the western to east-central Pacific. Convection and rainfall were enhanced over the central and eastern Pacific, while rainfall was suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative during July.
The forecast includes a specific estimate for the October–December 2026 season. CPC said there is a 69% chance of an event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events recorded since 1950, using a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index value of at least plus 2.5 degrees Celsius. The agency also stressed that a stronger event raises the chance of El Niño-related impacts but does not guarantee a particular outcome in any location.
An experimental August prediction from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory points in the same direction. The laboratory’s SPEAR model began its latest forecast on Aug. 1 and projects that the current event will continue intensifying through autumn, with a likely peak between October and January. It describes the forecast as an ensemble projection and retains the uncertainty that comes from different model realisations.
The CPC says oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly and that the next monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for Sept. 10. Seasonal effects should therefore be read through official regional outlooks rather than treated as a guaranteed forecast for rainfall, snow or temperature in a specific city.
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