Swiss voters headed to the polls on Sunday to decide whether to cap the country’s population at 10 million by 2050, in a referendum with significant consequences for the country’s relationship with the European Union and its reputation as one of the world’s most open economies. Polls had shown the race to be extremely close in the days before the vote.

The initiative was put forward by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, which argued that unchecked population growth was straining housing, transport, and public services. Switzerland’s population stood at just over 9.1 million at the end of 2025, having grown by ten percent in the previous decade. More than forty percent of the population has a migration background.

The proposal would enshrine in law a requirement that Switzerland’s permanent resident population not exceed 10 million before 2050. If the population reaches 9.5 million before then, the government would be required to take steps to slow growth, including tightening rules on asylum, family reunification, and residency permits, and renegotiating international agreements that affect migration flows.

Business groups, trade unions, and the Swiss government all campaigned against the initiative, warning that restricting immigration would hit sectors ranging from healthcare to banking and construction that depend heavily on foreign workers. The Swiss National Bank estimated that the cap could reduce GDP growth by as much as half a percentage point per year. Major employers said the country simply could not fill key positions without recruiting from abroad.

The more serious concern for many analysts is the deal’s collision with EU free movement rules. Switzerland is not an EU member but has bilateral agreements with the bloc that include provisions for the free movement of people. If the cap forces Switzerland to restrict EU migration, it could trigger a renegotiation or collapse of those agreements, a scenario sometimes described as Switzerland’s Brexit moment.

The final polling before the vote showed 52 percent opposed and 45 percent in favor, with three percent undecided. Swiss referendums frequently produce surprises, and turnout on Sunday was reported to be high in several cantons. Results were expected Sunday afternoon local time. The outcome will be closely watched across Europe, where immigration remains one of the most politically charged issues at both national and EU levels. Switzerland’s vote comes as the EU Migration Pact has just taken full effect after a two-year transition period. Several EU governments have been watching the Swiss vote as a signal of where European public opinion stands on migration limits. The G7 summit beginning Monday in Evian is expected to touch on migration as a secondary issue alongside Iran and Ukraine. Switzerland’s proximity to the war in Ukraine has also affected migration patterns into the country in recent years.