The latest NOAA outlook points to a strengthening El Niño pattern through the end of 2026 and into early 2027, while warning that seasonal probabilities should not be read as a precise snowfall forecast for individual cities.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said El Niño has strengthened and is forecast to intensify through 2026. The agency’s July seasonal discussion gave an 81 percent chance that the event would be very strong during October through December 2026 and said there was high confidence that it would continue into early 2027.
The same outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the western, southern and eastern contiguous United States during the August-October period. For precipitation, it favored wetter conditions across parts of the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, the Northern and Central Plains and portions of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
An Associated Press report published July 9 also said NOAA viewed the event as having an 81 percent chance of reaching the very strong category by fall. The report said El Niño typically increases the likelihood of warmer winter conditions in the northern United States and Canada and a rainier winter in the southern United States.
The 2026 winter snow forecast noaa search is therefore best understood as a broad climate signal, not a city-by-city snow total. NOAA says seasonal outlooks describe probabilities and should be supplemented by shorter-range forecasts as winter approaches.
