The contest taking shape in Makerfield is rapidly becoming more than a routine parliamentary byelection. For Labour, it now carries the weight of a broader argument about leadership, political direction and whether the party can still hold together amid growing pressure from Reform UK.

Andy Burnham is expected to be formally confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the constituency later this week after days of discussions with senior party figures. But allies close to the Greater Manchester mayor acknowledge privately that the race is far from secure.

Local election results have sharpened concerns inside Labour after Nigel Farage’s Reform UK secured more than half the vote in the area. Polling now suggests Burnham may hold only a narrow advantage heading into what is expected to be a short and intense campaign.

The vote, likely to be held around 18 June, is already being treated within Westminster as a test of Labour’s ability to withstand Reform’s growing appeal in former industrial areas where Brexit remains politically potent.

Reform is expected to focus heavily on immigration and Britain’s relationship with the European Union during the campaign. That approach has gained momentum following renewed disagreements inside Labour over whether the UK should eventually seek closer ties with the EU or even rejoin the bloc.

The internal dispute widened over the weekend after comments from Wes Streeting, who said he believed Britain’s long-term future lay in rejoining the European Union. The remarks were quickly challenged publicly by Lisa Nandy, exposing divisions at a difficult moment for the party.

For Burnham, the issue presents a political balancing act. Labour members remain overwhelmingly supportive of closer European ties, while voters in Makerfield backed leaving the EU by a significant margin in the 2016 referendum.

The outcome of the contest is also being closely linked to the position of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Burnham has already indicated he would challenge for the Labour leadership if he returns to Westminster, increasing the pressure on Starmer as criticism from within his own party continues.

According to allies cited in the discussions surrounding the campaign, Starmer spent the weekend at Chequers reflecting on his political future. While he has publicly resisted calls to step aside, some within Labour believe a decisive Burnham victory in Makerfield could alter the leadership question quickly, particularly if no alternative challenger emerges.

At the same time, a defeat for Burnham would leave Labour facing a different kind of uncertainty. Starmer could remain in office, but weakened further by internal criticism and without a clear successor waiting in the wings.

Luke Tryl, director of the research group More in Common, said the race was unusually difficult to predict because Burnham’s personal standing in Greater Manchester cuts across the broader political trends visible in the constituency.

He described the contest as a collision between local demographics that appear favourable to Reform UK and Burnham’s own popularity with regional voters.

Applications for Labour’s candidacy close on Monday, with the party’s executive committee expected to make a recommendation later in the week. If Burnham is the sole applicant, party officials could move more quickly to finalise the process.

The debate over Europe is also likely to intensify in Parliament this week when the Liberal Democrats table an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for immediate talks on entering a customs union with the EU.

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For now, attention remains fixed on Makerfield, where a campaign lasting only a few weeks may come to shape much more than the result in a single constituency.