Energy analysts warned Thursday that oil prices could climb to $150 per barrel within weeks if the US-Iran conflict continues at its current intensity, a scenario that would represent the highest crude prices since the post-pandemic peak of 2022 and would send shock waves through every major economy.

Rystad Energy, the Norwegian consultancy widely cited for commodity price analysis, published a scenario report Thursday projecting that a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks or more would push Brent crude from its current $94 to a range of $130 to $150. The lower end of that range would require Iranian restrictions to ease within a fortnight; the upper end reflects a prolonged military engagement with no near-term resolution.

The Strait of Hormuz is the critical chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s traded oil moves daily. Iran announced restrictions on commercial traffic through the strait Thursday following the second consecutive night of US airstrikes. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait all export the bulk of their oil through the strait.

At $150 per barrel, economists estimate US retail gasoline prices would rise to between $5.50 and $6 per gallon nationally, from current levels near $3.80. European petrol prices, already among the highest in the developed world, would reach levels last seen during the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

For developing economies, the shock would be more severe. Countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa that import most of their oil and have limited foreign currency reserves would face acute balance-of-payments pressure. The International Monetary Fund has already flagged commodity price spikes as the top near-term downside risk to its 2026 global growth forecast.

The scenarios assume Iran maintains current restrictions and does not escalate further. A scenario in which Iran directly targets oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, as it did during the 2019 Abqaiq attack, would push prices higher still. That scenario is considered a tail risk but has not been ruled out by intelligence agencies tracking the conflict.

Central banks face a particularly difficult dilemma in a high-oil-price scenario. Energy-driven inflation would pressure them toward tighter monetary policy, while the economic slowdown caused by high energy costs would argue for lower rates. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank would be forced to choose between fighting inflation and supporting growth.

Current commodity market prices and supply data are tracked by the US Energy Information Administration. The downstream impact on consumer electronics pricing is discussed in coverage of the Garmin Forerunner 70 and the Oura Ring 5, both of which have global supply chains sensitive to energy and freight costs. Tech hardware pricing implications are further discussed in analysis of the Nubia Z80 Ultra’s pricing strategy.