Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened in select international markets on July 29 and reaches North America on July 31, with projections ranging from $180 million to $280 million for its opening weekend in the US.

Even the lowest estimate would make it 2026’s biggest opening to date. Early projections suggest it could surpass the prior Spider-Man film, “No Way Home,” which holds the second-highest domestic opening of all time with $260 million.

Pre-Sales Are Off the Charts

Box office forecasters reported early sales well above Deadpool & Wolverine ($211.4M) and comparable to “No Way Home.” When analysts across forecasting firms all report the same surge, it means something real is happening.

This is a Spider-Man film in an established Marvel timeline. Audiences trust the brand. The timing—just after “The Odyssey” dominance—shows that audiences remain hungry for event films.

Global Potential

International markets are opening the film simultaneously with North America, a strategy that maximizes global weekend totals. Analysts project a global opening north of $400 million if North American performance meets expectations.

What’s at Stake

If Spider-Man hits $260M+, it signals that superhero films still work when executed well. If it lands in the mid-range, it suggests audience appetite is softening. Either way, this weekend tells studios what consumers want heading into fall.

Pre-sales suggest this is the bigger opening. History suggests we should believe them.