Climate scientists are warning that El Niño conditions are reasserting themselves in the Pacific Ocean after a La Niña phase in late 2025, raising the probability that 2026 or 2027 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization has flagged a strong-to-historic El Niño event as a growing possibility, with regional impacts expected to range from severe drought in parts of Africa and Asia to intensified Atlantic hurricane activity and further heatwave risk in Europe and North America.

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that reshapes weather patterns across much of the globe. Its return in 2026, on top of the underlying background warming from climate change, creates compounding conditions that climate researchers say have not been seen in the instrumental record. The 2023-24 El Niño was itself exceptionally strong and pushed global average temperatures to new highs, with 2024 ending as the warmest year ever measured.

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have been rising since early 2026, with monitoring buoys and satellite data showing the characteristic warm anomaly in the eastern Pacific that precedes a full El Niño event. Forecasters at NOAA, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the Japan Meteorological Agency are all tracking the development, with several placing the probability of a significant El Niño by the Northern Hemisphere autumn above 60 percent.

The implications are wide-reaching. Australia, Southeast Asia, and southern Africa typically experience drought conditions during El Niño years. The Indian monsoon can weaken, threatening food security across South Asia. Parts of the Americas, particularly Peru, Ecuador, and the southern United States, tend to see heavier-than-normal rainfall and flooding. Global food commodity prices respond to the resulting disruptions in agricultural production.

The European heatwave that set records across France, Portugal, and the UK in May 2026 has already been linked by climate scientists to the combination of background warming and the transition toward El Niño. The unusual timing — a May heatwave reaching 40 degrees Celsius in Portugal — fits patterns predicted by models showing El Niño years producing earlier and more intense European heat events.

Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, is likely to be more active than average during an El Niño year, contrary to the usual rule of thumb that El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation. Researchers note that the specific ocean temperature patterns in 2026 differ from previous events in ways that may not reduce Atlantic activity as much as historical El Niño correlations would suggest.

Governments in vulnerable regions are activating preparation plans drawn up after the 2023-24 event. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and several African countries have issued early warning advisories. Agricultural agencies in South Asia are advising farmers on drought-resilient crop strategies as a precaution. Water utilities in parts of Australia are reviewing reservoir management plans.

The World Meteorological Organization is expected to issue a formal El Niño advisory before the end of June if current trends continue. That declaration would trigger standardised responses from humanitarian agencies and national civil protection systems. More on the global climate situation is in our environment coverage. The WMO’s El Niño monitoring page publishes real-time updates on Pacific Ocean conditions and outlook forecasts.