The average 30-year fixed refinance rate climbed to 6.72 percent on Wednesday, up two basis points from the day before, according to Bankrate’s daily survey. The 15-year fixed refinance rate sits at 6.16 percent.

Rates have been drifting higher since the Federal Reserve‘s June meeting, where policymakers struck a hawkish tone. Inflation is still running well above the Fed’s 2 percent target, and most officials now expect the central bank’s next move to be a hike, not a cut.

Why refinance rates keep climbing

A few weeks ago, homeowners waiting to refinance had reason for optimism. That mood has faded. Zillow puts the current 30-year refinance rate at 6.54 percent, while other lenders quote it closer to 6.75 percent, depending on credit profile and loan size.

The spread between quotes is normal. What’s not normal is the direction. Rates had been expected to ease this year. Instead, sticky inflation numbers have pushed the Fed toward a tighter stance, and mortgage rates track that expectation closely.

For anyone who bought a home in 2023 or 2024 at rates above 7 percent, refinancing at today’s numbers can still make sense. For those hoping to get under 6 percent, the wait keeps getting longer.

What it means for homeowners right now

A 30-year refinance at 6.72 percent on a $350,000 loan runs close to $2,270 a month in principal and interest alone, before taxes and insurance. That’s the kind of number that keeps a lot of households on the sidelines rather than locking in a new rate.

Housing economists quoted this week don’t see relief coming soon. The consensus is that rates stay above 6 percent for the rest of the year, barring a sharp change in inflation data or a surprise from the Fed.

What to watch next

The next big data point is Friday’s jobs report. A weak number could ease pressure on the Fed and pull rates down slightly. A strong one will likely do the opposite.

Anyone shopping for a refinance right now should expect quotes to move day to day. Locking a rate on a good day, rather than waiting for a better one that may not come, is the trade-off every borrower is weighing.

Rates went up two basis points today. They could go up two more tomorrow. Nobody refinancing right now is doing it because the timing is perfect.